PRESIDENT HAKAINDE HICHILEMA & THE UPND SHOULD NOT UNDERRATE MUNDUBILE & MAKEBI.
One of the things Zambian political cadres have mastered so well in each election year, is self deception – lying to oneself to avoid reality. Late President, Edgar Chagwa Lungu did in 2021 while UPND is doing it this year.
While signs were seen early that the PF had lost popularity and was going to lose elections, its senior members and supporters were busy self-comforting that they were still popular and headed for electoral victory.
Many mistakes are being committed by UPND, their senior members, supporters and here is how;
1 – No Opposition Theory;
While the above statement seemed very true three months ago, it has become apparent that it is not the case anymore, the massive political rallies held by Mundubile and Makebi in Eastern Province and the Copperbelt have shown us otherwise. Every rally though hastily organized and with very little resources has attracted massive and enthusiastic crowds who are openly showing support for the opposition leaders.
2 – Stopping Independents from campaigning using the President’s name;
President Hichilema stopping his supporters who have opted to contest as Independents after being sidelined by the party during adoptions from using his name or campaigning for him, and also stating several times that he will only work with MPs who are loyal to the party and have contested elections on its ticket is a huge political blunder. Instead of treating many of his members who have stood on Independent tickets as enemies, he and the party should not have castigated them but rather used them to garner support for the party overall even if it meant losing parliamentary seats. Aside of the ones in Southern Province who will still vote for him, many in different regions feel ill-treated and disrespected, they will rather vote for their parliamentary candidates but not him or shift allegiance to the opposition (NRP-UP).
CT
3. United PF Factions in 2026.
Prior to the 2021 elections, the Patriotic Front disintegrated in several factions, led by different disenchanted leaders; KBF, Harry Kalaba, Kambwili and the rest which led to the party losing members and having serious voter apathy in their strongholds, the opposite is happening now. All the former factional leaders have united even with their separate parties contesting and are supporting Mundubile & Makebi. They have put their differences aside all to see HH and the UPND out of power.
4. Shifting Copperbelt support.
Everyone who has followed Zambian politics will agree that while all provincial votes matter, the Copperbelt vote matters even more. Any party that wins the majority votes there while maintaining numbers in their stronghold has a higher chance of winning national elections. The Chingola stone throwing incident, and now the massive opposition rally turn out in Kitwe should not be treated as isolated cases. They are indicators of the overall feeling of the majority in the region and of a shift in political support from the UPND back to the opposition.
5. Momentum and Apathy.
Just as was in 2016 and 2021, the UPND as opposition having political momentum, and the most enthusiastic voters while the PF experienced the opposite in Lusaka, Copperbelt and their other strongholds. The opposite will occur this coming election. Mundubile and Makebi have gained momentum, and their supporters are more enthusiastic. They have more reasons to vote for their candidates and even more to vote the UPND out for.
6. The Makebi/ ECL Sympathy Vote.
If there is a move that Makebi Zulu made and selfishly utilized, It is that of defending and speaking on behalf of the family of former president , Edgar Chagwa Lungu. Many people that supported the former president or sympathized with the former first family view him as an ally and a defender of a political victim of the UPND, even though he is dead. They will vote for NRP-UP out of symapthy, and against the ruling party out of spite not principle.
While the above are shifting indicators towards NRP-UP , the voting tide still favors President Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND in the August elections, It will however not be an apparent beat down that many ruling party supporters seem to believe or anticipate. Mundubile and Makebi should not be underrated and ruled out completely as they have garnered support. They will compete favorably in this year’s election, with their momentum not waning till 2031.
I wish For Peaceful and Fair Elections!
Mbanga, Irvine Ilukui. (2026)
Fayetteville, Arkansas.
United States of America.