Projecting 95 percent election victory in Zambia is ‘insane’, says Amos Chanda
Former presidential aide Amos Chanda has described projections of a 95 percent election victory for either the ruling party or the opposition as unrealistic, arguing that Zambia’s competitive multi-party democracy makes such outcomes virtually impossible.
Lusaka, 25 June – Speaking on Prime TV’s Oxygen of Democracy programme on Monday, Chanda said the country’s electoral system, which requires a candidate to secure more than 50 percent of the vote, presents a significant challenge even for the strongest contenders.
He said he did not expect any presidential candidate in the August 13 general election to attain 70 percent or 80 percent of the vote, let alone 95 percent.
“In a 50+1 threshold system, the winning margin is not a simple thing. It is quite a high bar in a very competitive multi-party democracy like Zambia. I do not agree with assertions that someone will carry the day with a 90 percent victory,” Chanda said.
He noted that President Hakainde Hichilema himself had repeatedly urged supporters not to assume victory before votes are cast, a position Chanda said reflects the realities of the country’s political landscape.
Chanda argued that anyone advising a political leader that they are heading for a 90 percent victory is misleading them.
“I do not think that anyone who goes to their leader, whether in government or in opposition, and tells them they are winning by 90 percent is telling the truth. Even in one-party states, people were reluctant to declare 100 percent victories and would instead announce figures like 91 or 95 percent,” he said.
He questioned how such projections could be made in an election featuring 14 presidential candidates and several competitive political formations.
According to Chanda, political parties should focus on convincing voters rather than relying on assumptions of overwhelming support.
“The campaign must continue. You cannot simply say that because you have done certain things, victory is guaranteed. Messaging must reflect the realities on the ground,” he said.
Meanwhile, Chanda identified President Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) and Tonse Alliance presidential candidate Brian Mundubile as the two leading contenders in the race.
He said political experience and observation of public engagement around candidates often provide indications of who is commanding the most attention among voters.
“Whether I belong to the UPND or not, I am experienced enough to see the two frontrunners. Looking at the public response and the level of attention candidates attract, it is clear that President Hakainde Hichilema and Brian Mundubile are leading the pack,” Chanda said.
He added that while other parties such as Citizens First and the Socialist Party remain visible in the campaign, the UPND and Tonse Alliance currently appear to be setting the pace.
Chanda said an outcome in which a candidate outside the four most visible political formations emerged as a leading contender would be a major surprise.
He maintained that although the race remains crowded, the strongest competition appears to be centred around the UPND, Tonse Alliance, Citizens First and the Socialist Party as Zambia heads towards the August 13 polls.
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This is a two horse race, President Hichilema is Mr. Mundubile. The rest are mere escorts (inshindishi).
Between them, they will probably account for 95% of the votes cast. The assertion that the presidential race is crowded is a myth. And so is the splitting if the opposition vote.