THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE: MUNDUBILE FACES A STEEP CLIMB
By Patrick Mukosha
The 2026 Certified Register of Voters paints a picture that should worry Brian Mundubile’s camp, and unsettle his “politically inclined roman clergy friend”
With 8.79 million registered voters, the battleground is no longer about loud statements or social media narratives—it’s about where the votes are.
The three biggest voting blocs are:
●Lusaka: 1,430,889 voters
●Copperbelt: 1,296,446 voters
●Eastern: 1,129,444 voters
Together, these provinces account for 3.86 million voters—almost 44% of the national electorate.
If President Hakainde Hichilema (HH) manages to split these three provinces evenly with Brian Mundubile—or even edges ahead with a 60:40 or 65:35 advantage—he enters election day with a strong national platform.
From there, HH only needs respectable inroads into the traditional opposition provinces of Muchinga, Luapula and Northern, while consolidating support in Southern, Western and North-Western, where the UPND has historically performed strongly.
By contrast, Mundubile faces a much tougher mathematical challenge. Even if he dominates parts of Northern, Luapula and Muchinga, he would still need to make significant gains in Southern, Western and North-Western Provinces – with 2.2m voters – areas where UPND has historically enjoyed substantial support.
Without meaningful improvements there, reaching a national majority becomes considerably more difficult for Mundubile.
Politics is ultimately about arithmetic before it is about rhetoric.
The campaign has shown President HH holding rallies across multiple districts almost daily, while the opposition has concentrated its activities in fewer locations.
Should that translate into votes, the picture will look even more gloomy for Mundubile on polling day.
HH’s campaign strategy has baffled the opposition. He’s poised to cover all 10 provinces and 116 districts within two months – holding 3-4 rallies per day in each province.
As we speak, Mundubile’s health has taken a toll due to the pressure of intense campaigns, so much that some of his rallies have been cancelled. In the meantime, the ECZ presidential campaign calendar is in force.
The bottom line: Based on the voter register and historical voting patterns, HH appears to have a clearer pathway to a resounding victory.
Can campaigns, turnout, alliances, and voter sentiment over the remaining weeks influence the final outcome? I doubt it, though. Let’s wait and see!
“The register sets the stage, but the voters write the final chapter.”