Why Makebi Zulu Emerges as the True Winner

THE REAL SIGNAL BENEATH THE NOISE

Why Makebi Zulu Emerges as the True Winner

By Brian Matambo | Sandton, South Africa

Dear Reader,

You will agree with me that Ambassador Emmanuel Mwamba held many of us Zambians, both at home and abroad, in suspense as he carried out these polls. There was drama, of course. That is inevitable considering that politics is involved. Nevertheless, there was also a fair level of transparency that made the exercise worth observing closely.

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Let me say, I understand media at a very deep level. And what we saw across the three polls is something every presidential candidate in Zambia should pay careful attention to. There are lessons in it. I will leave it there.

Back to the matter at hand. In politics, numbers matter. The rest is mere noise. And the polls on EMV presented the opportunity to cut through the noise to the numbers that matter.

You see, President Hakainde Hichilema emerged the winner on the Facebook Poll, getting 51.27%. But this is the poll with the lowest-integrity instrument among the three.

A Facebook reaction poll requires almost no effort. Anyone scrolling past can click. Multiple accounts can click. Organised digital teams can click. Even automated systems can click. The barrier to participation is essentially zero.

It is therefore not surprising that President Hichilema recorded 51.27% in that poll. An incumbent naturally enjoys enormous name recognition and a wide digital footprint. When participation requires no effort, visibility alone can dominate the results. Needless to say, HH has been in politics for over 20 years, and he has been republican President for the last 4 and a half years. He has over 2 million followers on Facebook.

Elections are not decided by casual reactions on a timeline. They are decided by people who are willing to act.

The moment we shift our attention to the two polls that required deliberate action, the picture changes sharply.

In the Call-In Poll, voters had to pick up a phone and dial in. That simple requirement filters out the casual observer and leaves only those motivated enough to take a step. In that poll, Harry Kalaba led with 44.2%, while Makebi Zulu followed closely with 40.1%, just four percentage points behind.

Then came the Comment Poll, where each vote required a written comment tied to a real Facebook account. This format significantly raises the cost of manipulation and requires a conscious decision by the voter.

Here, the outcome was decisive. Makebi Zulu won the poll outright with 43.5%, nearly double the 24.4% recorded by Harry Kalaba.

Meanwhile, the incumbent’s support dropped dramatically once participation required effort. President Hichilema registered 4.4% in the call-in poll and 11.3% in the comment poll.

The pattern is unmistakable. Where effort is zero, President Hichilema leads. Where effort is required, his support collapses.

Makebi Zulu shows the opposite trend. His support strengthens as the voting mechanism demands more commitment from the voter. And that distinction matters.

A political base that merely reacts is not the same as a political base that mobilises. One reflects visibility. The other reflects conviction. If the polls are examined not merely by volume but by voter integrity, the conclusion becomes clear.

The Facebook reaction poll measures reach. The call-in and comment polls measure commitment. Measured by that standard, the signal beneath the noise becomes unmistakable.

You also want to observe that Makebi Zulu stepped back into active politics barely 3 and a half months ago. He his facebook page has merely got over 109,000 followers. And it was started on 23 October, 2025. Makebi Zulu was basically having a Gideon moment in those polls.

And that is the reason Makebi Zulu emerges as the real winner.