WHY HH MAY STILL WIN THIS ELECTION

WHY HH MAY STILL WIN THIS ELECTION

President Hakainde Hichilema may no longer have the emotional momentum that swept him into office in 2021, but politically he still appears ahead going into the August 13 election.

The pressure on the UPND is real. The cost of living remains painful for many families. Mealie meal prices, fuel costs and pressure on household incomes have given the opposition a strong campaign message.

But elections are not won by anger alone.

HH still carries the advantages that come with incumbency. The UPND remains the most organised political structure in the country at the moment, with functioning networks stretching from urban centres into rural constituencies where elections are often decided.

That machinery matters.

The government also has something concrete to campaign on. Debt restructuring progress, mining investments, road works, school infrastructure and recruitment programmes have given the ruling party visible projects to point at during campaigns.

People may disagree on whether enough has been done, but politically visibility matters during elections.

The opposition also faces its own challenges.

While opposition activity has intensified, the anti-UPND vote still appears fragmented. Different alliances, internal wrangles and competing ambitions have made it difficult for the opposition to project one united national force capable of matching the UPND’s structures across all provinces.

That weakens momentum.

Another factor working in HH’s favour is rural support. Historically, ruling parties in Zambia survive difficult economic periods by maintaining strong rural mobilisation where development projects, farming support and local party structures carry heavy influence.

Urban frustration alone rarely decides national elections.

Still, this election is becoming tighter than many in government may want to admit.

The 2021 election was powered heavily by hope and public emotion. The 2026 election is now shifting into a performance assessment. Voters are no longer asking what HH promises to do. They are now asking what has changed in their daily lives.

That changes the political atmosphere completely.

The opposition will continue attacking the government over the economy, governance concerns and political tensions. Those issues are capable of hurting any ruling party.

But for now, HH still appears to hold the advantage because incumbency brings visibility, organisation, resources and a recovery message the opposition has not fully dismantled.

The race is open.

But it is not yet an opposition election to lose.