ABOUT THE ILLUSION OF STRONGHOLDS: HOW INTACT ARE THE NORTH-WESTERN, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PROVINCE VOTES FOR PRESIDENT HAKAINDE HICHILEMA?
By Sean Tembo – Roma Constituency Independent Aspiring Member of Parliament and Member of the Brian Mundubile Presidential Campaign Team
1. A year ago, I was sure that President Hakainde Hichilema would win this year’s general election, albeit with a small margin. My assessment then was largely attributed to him taking full advantage of incumbency. By nominations time in June this year, my position had changed. I was sure that the first round of the presidential election would go to a re-run, and that the outcome of the re-run would depend on how the HH and BM teams played their cards in that intervening period. Three weeks to the general election, my position has now changed again. I now believe that President Hakainde Hichilema will outrightly lose the Presidential election in the first round. The main reason for my revised assessment is the recent realization that his strongholds are, in fact, not intact.
2. It is my considered view that, almost all projections for next month’s presidential elections, that I have come across, contain one fundamental flaw. That is the illusion that North-Western, Western and Southern provinces are still President Hakainde Hichilema’s strongholds. I beg to differ. Those who argue that these three provinces are, and will eternally remain President Hakainde Hichilema’s strongholds, premise their argument on how these provinces overwhelmingly voted for HH in 2015, 2016 and 2021.
3. But Mr Hakainde Hichilema did not start participating in presidential elections in 2015. He started in 2006. It is a well documented fact that these three provinces did not overwhelmingly vote for Mr Hakainde Hichilema in 2006, 2008 and 2011. In fact, these three provinces were MMD strongholds. They only shifted and started to overwhelmingly vote for HH in 2015, and then continued in 2016 and 2021. What does that tell you?
4. It tells us two things. Firstly, that North-Western, Western and Southern provinces did not overwhelmingly vote for President Hakainde Hichilema in 2015, 2016 and 2021 because they have a special bond with him, but rather because they expected him to deliver certain development. If these provinces had a certain undying special bond with Mr Hakainde Hichilema, then they would have started overwhelmingly voting for him in 2006 when he just stepped onto the presidential ticket. But they did not. Secondly, it tells us that, contrary to popular opinion, these three provinces are capable of supporting another political party and presidential candidate, other than UPND and Mr Hakainde Hichilema.
5. In order to determine whether the UPND perceived strongholds of North-Western, Western and Southern provinces are intact or not, as we approach next month’s presidential election, it is important to find out why these provinces shifted and started to overwhelmingly vote for President Hakainde Hichilema in 2015. Here, different people will have different views, and I respect that. My considered view, however, is that, from the time that PF ascended to office in 2011, Mr Hakainde Hichilema’s narrative was that these three provinces would never see development, for as long as PF remained in office, because PF was segregating against them. After repeating this narrative severally, the people of North-Western, Western and Southern provinces believed Mr Hakainde Hichilema. They believed that their “underdevelopment” was because PF was segregating against them. They also believed that if they replaced PF with UPND, then development would immediately come to their provinces. But has it, in the last 5 years of President Hakainde Hichilema being in office?
6. Recently, I was in Livingstone for about a week, attending to a family bereavement. The political mood that I saw there was not pro-UPND, and neither was it neutral. It was strongly anti-UPND. Ordinary people pointed out that the most recent infrastructure projects in the district are the three mini-hospitals, the inter-city bus shelter and the tarring of airport road. And that all these projects were done by the PF administration. The people pointed out that it is only about a month ago that they saw some potholed tarred roads being graded, but they are not sure whether they’ll remain dust roads or they will be re-tarred. They said they just hear about CDF but there is no single project to point at in their district.
7. The few times that I have travelled to Western Province, the level of disappointment among the people, is very clear. Although most of them speak in hushed tones, for fear of offending those who might still be strong supporters of President Hakainde Hichilema. As for North-Western Province, the total lack of development in the area, especially with regard to the deplorable road network and lack of tertiary institutions, is something that even senior UPND officials have admitted and complained about. The UPND Provincial Youth Chairman, Mr Bruce Kanema, has openly condemned his own Government for the lack of development in his province. Not once, not twice, but on several occasions. This total lack of development is despite the fact that the province is the new bread basket for the nation, in terms of tax revenue.
8. Since Mr Hakainde Hichilema incessantly psyched the people of North-Western, Western and Southern provinces that development would never come to their areas for as long as PF remained in office, because PF was sagregating against them, the natural expectation of the people in these provinces, was that after removing PF in 2021, some visible development would begin to flow to their areas. But alas, these people saw more development delivered to them by the PF that “sagregated” against them, than the UPND that “loves” them.
9. Of course, President Hakainde Hichilema’s explanation for the lack of development in the past 5 years, not only in his strongholds, but across the country, has been that he spent the past 5 years laying a foundation, and that he needs another 5 years to build on that foundation. The million dollar question however, is whether the people in his strongholds will agree with that explanation or not? My take is that President Hakainde Hichilema’s excuse is unlikely to be accepted. That is because people, not only in the UPND strongholds, and not only in Zambia, but across the world, have become increasingly impatient with their leaders. That is largely because of the digital age that we live in, where information about Government performance or lack thereof, is too readily available to citizens. In the age that we live in, the only solution for a Government to survive is to deliver according to the expectations of the impatient citizens. Giving a brilliant excuse for failing to deliver simply does not sell.
10. What makes President Hakainde Hichilema’s excuse for lack of delivery, even more unsellable, is his poor messaging in his campaigns. Both at rallies and in advertisements. The President’s rallies have been focusing more on personal attacks against his opponents, as well as vague promises such as an international airport in each province. Similarly, his advertisements focus on his portrait, as if the people of Zambia do not know what he looks like, such that they might miss his face on the ballot paper. If it was Brian Mundubile putting his portraits all over the place, we might understand. But the people of Zambia know exactly what President Hakainde Hichilema looks like. His face has graced all public and commercial places in the past 5 years. What the people of Zambia really want to know is what he has achieved in the past 5 years, if anything, and what he intends to achieve in the next 5 years, if given another mandate. Such a clear explanation would constitute the backbone of any sound re-election bid. But the President’s only re-election message, that is often pasted next to his portrait is only “Salt Sana”. Suffice to mention that without the overwhelming support that Mr Hakainde Hichilema enjoyed in his strongholds in 2015, 2016 and 2021, he is back to his 2006 default settings as a third-rate contender. The President’s performance in his strongholds next month, will determine whether they overwhelmingly supported him in 2015, 2016 and 2021 because they love him or because they expected him to deliver development. If these provinces supported him because they love him as an individual, then the votes are intact. If however, they supported him because they expected him to deliver development in their areas, and that development has not materialized, then the votes are gone and the President is back to his 2006 default settings. Let us wait and see.
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SET 26.07.2026