EMMANUEL MWAMBA’S COMPARISON OF MAIZE PRODUCTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PROVINCES LACED WITH LIES: AS USUAL!

EMMANUEL MWAMBA’S COMPARISON OF MAIZE PRODUCTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PROVINCES LACED WITH LIES: AS USUAL!

By Shalala Oliver Sepiso

Emmanuel Mwamba this evening said that “since 2011, Northern Province has overtaken Southern Province in Maize production”.

It’s is not true that from 2011 Northern Province overtook Southern Province in Maize production.

From 2011 to 2026, Southern Province has always beaten Northern Province in Maize production except in drought years.

In the 2024/2025, Southern Province produced 454,000 metric tonnes of Maize while Northern produced 450,000 metric tonnes of maize. This was because of the good rains of 2004 into 2025, which saw Southern rebound sharply from the 2024 drought.

The year before, 2023/2024 farming season saw Southern produced a paltry 24,300 metric tonnes of maize while Northern had 191,000 (sold to FRA). These figures were because of the severe drought in the year, with Southern hit hardest of all provinces in Zambia.

2022/2023  saw Southern with 489,000 and 330,000 was produced in Northern Province which often faces higher rainfall but also higher leaching of its soils.

In the 2021/2022 season, there was a higher production in Southern than there was in Northern Province.

So over the years under UPND, Northern has not beaten Southern in maize production except in the year of drought in 2024 only.

But it is clear that in the years under UPND, the production numbers in Southern Province have been very high compared with those in the PF days.

Now let’s look at the 10 years PF was on power.

Emmanuel Mwamba claimed thay Northern Province overtook Southern in 2011. In reality, in 2010/2011, Southern Province produced 639,541 while Northern Province (then combined with Muchinga Province) produced only 400,000 metric tonnes of maize. So Emmanuel Mwamba lied.

In fact, official ZamStats figures also show that 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 all saw Southern Province produce more maize than Northern Province.

It is only in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 when Northern Province beat Southern in Maize production due to another drought.

Let us agree that Southern Province is traditionally one of the top three maize producers but is highly vulnerable to drought (e.g., 2023/2024, 2018/2019). It can produce over 600,000 MT in good years and plummet below 50,000 MT in drought years.

Let us also agree that Northern Province is always Consistent and has High Potential (especially when combined with Muchinga) such that it often competes for the top position due to more stable rainfall. In recent years, it has often outperformed Southern Province in drought years but doesn’t beat it in a normal rainfall years.

Now Agriculture is not just maize. It also includes animal husbandry.

Southern Province consistently holds the highest cattle population in Zambia (approx. 1.75 million as of 2024), significantly outpacing Northern Province. The 2024 Integrated Agricultural Survey confirms that Southern Province has the highest cattle population. Historically, this province has dominated in cattle numbers, supported by suitable ecology, often holding over 1 million head of cattle throughout the 2010s.

Northern Province, Zambia, has an estimated 170,000 to 189,359 head of cattle, representing roughly 6% to 10% of the country’s total population, with significant herds in Mbala and Mungwi districts. The region has high potential for ranching and dairy farming due to favorable climate and water resources.

While Southern Province leads, Northern Province has experienced a notable, sharp increase in cattle numbers since 2021, recording a 9.5% growth rate between 2021 and 2022, signaling a, rapid expansion in the region. Historically, cattle numbers in the northern part of the country have been much lower than in the southern region.

According to a 2022 livestock census report, from 2021 to 2022, there was a 9.5% growth in Northern Province, which was one of the highest in the country, trailing only behind Muchinga Province at 21.1%. It is clear that there has been a significant upward trend in cattle numbers in the Northern Province since 2021. The 2022 livestock census report noted that while national growth was modest (1.4%), regional growth was strong in the North, with a 9.5% increase, pointing to a robust expansion in cattle numbers in that region.

This trend indicates that while Southern Province remains the leader in absolute numbers, Northern Province is experiencing a significant surge in, cattle, farming activity since the UPND took over power in Zambia.

Let’s use correct numbers when talking about these things.