EXPLAINER | EU Flags Gaps in August 13 Vote Tally

EXPLAINER | EU Flags Gaps in August 13 Vote Tally

Claims circulating among some Tonse Alliance supporters suggesting international observers have called for Zambia’s August 13 presidential election to be re-run are not supported by the latest statement from the European Union Election Observation Mission.

The EU mission has raised significant concerns about what happened during the tabulation of results, particularly after the Electoral Commission of Zambia temporarily suspended counting and announcements on August 14. But its election observation update, issued on Wednesday, does not call for cancellation of the election, nullification of the presidential result or a fresh vote.

What the EU says is nevertheless serious. Its observers were present at 64 constituency totalling centres. Before the suspension, tabulation was assessed as “very good” in 43% of observations, with polling agents and citizen observers present at almost all centres monitored. After counting resumed, however, the mission says “the overall conduct of tabulation deteriorated significantly.”

The figures provide some measure of the deterioration. After the suspension, transparency was rated “bad” or “very bad” in 12% of the totalling centres observed, while only 27% were assessed as “very good”. EU observers also found staff failed to immediately record announced results on tally sheets in 42% of observations, compared with 30% before the suspension. Checks confirming figures entered into the digital results system matched tally sheets were observed in 81% of cases after the suspension, down from 100% beforehand.

The EU also recorded unusual delays. Observers reported extended breaks in almost half of their observations, with returning officers appearing to wait for instructions from ECZ headquarters before announcing results. A heavy military presence was described as intimidating by people interviewed by the mission, while fewer party agents and citizen observers remained at some totalling centres.

There were security incidents as well. The EU says an armed group attacked the Makeni totalling centre in Lusaka on August 15 and took almost all polling-station result forms. In Kabwe, the mission says “various credible witnesses” reported alleged UPND cadres raided two of the three totalling centres on August 16, “fundamentally disrupting the tabulation process.” These are substantial observations, although the EU update does not conclude from them that the national presidential result was altered.

Perhaps the strongest criticism concerns transparency. ECZ did not publish partial results on the results website it had launched before polling and decided against publishing disaggregated polling-station results. The EU argues publication of those figures would allow citizens and political parties to compare polling-station records with the numbers announced by ECZ. It has therefore repeated its call for “maximal transparency” and specifically wants ECZ to publish results broken down by polling station.

This distinction matters because Brian Mundubile is preparing a legal challenge to the presidential result. He has alleged differences between polling-station figures held by NRPUP and figures appearing in the final tally. Publication of polling-station-level results would provide a direct way of testing part of his argument. Signed party copies could be compared against ECZ’s published records, station by station.

But the EU update does not make the next leap being made on social media. It does not say Hakainde Hichilema did not win. It does not say Mundubile won. It does not conclude identified problems changed enough votes to alter the national outcome. And it does not recommend a re-run.

The distinction is straightforward: the EU has questioned important parts of the process, not declared the result invalid. Its observers documented deterioration in tabulation, security incidents, reduced transparency and shortcomings in verification procedures. Those findings could become relevant to political debate or litigation, but their legal effect is a separate question.

The mission also remains in Zambia and says observation is continuing across all 10 provinces. Its latest document is therefore an observation update, not the final word on the election.

For now, two claims should not be confused. Saying “EU observers found serious weaknesses in the results process” is supported by the mission’s own report. Saying “EU observers have called for a re-run” is not.

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