EXPLAINER | Tonse Manifesto: Ambition, Arithmetic and Zambia’s Economic Reality

 EXPLAINER | Tonse Manifesto: Ambition, Arithmetic and Zambia’s Economic Reality

Every election season produces promises. Some are practical. Some are aspirational. Some are designed to mobilise voters rather than survive contact with government.

The Tonse Alliance manifesto, unveiled under the leadership of Brian Mundubile, falls into a category somewhere between ambition and disruption. It is arguably the most interventionist economic document presented by the opposition so far, built around a simple political argument: Zambia’s economic recovery has not translated into broad-based prosperity for ordinary citizens.

Unlike campaign speeches delivered at rallies, manifestos deserve to be judged differently. They must answer a harder question. Not whether people like the promises, but whether those promises can actually be financed, implemented and sustained.

The Tonse document begins with an important political observation. Large sections of the population feel left behind despite improvements in some macroeconomic indicators. The manifesto’s symbolic figures — Nakulu Mutinta and Imisepela — represent precisely those frustrations. One represents struggling households. The other represents unemployed and underemployed youths searching for opportunity. Politically, this is smart messaging because it speaks directly to economic anxieties many citizens genuinely experience.

The manifesto’s headline commitment is perhaps its most ambitious: creating more than one million additional formal jobs and increasing formal employment from approximately 1.18 million to 2.5 million. The objective is understandable. Zambia’s greatest challenge remains jobs. Yet this is also where questions begin.

Job creation at that scale would require annual economic growth consistently above historical averages while simultaneously attracting large-scale private investment, expanding manufacturing, growing mining output, increasing agricultural productivity and developing entirely new sectors of the economy. Countries do not create one million formal jobs through government hiring alone. Those jobs must come largely from private sector expansion. The manifesto identifies the destination. The journey remains less clearly defined.

Energy represents another major pillar.

Tonse proposes mobilising US$12 billion to address Zambia’s electricity deficit through solar, wind, biomass and other generation technologies. Few would dispute the need. Load shedding has become one of the country’s biggest economic constraints. The challenge is financing.

Twelve billion dollars is a figure equivalent to a substantial portion of Zambia’s annual economic output. Such a programme would require a combination of private investors, development finance institutions, public-private partnerships and sovereign guarantees. The question is not whether it can be done. The question is whether it can be done within a single presidential term.

Agriculture receives perhaps some of the manifesto’s strongest policy attention.

The proposal to expand irrigation, develop agro-industrial parks and shift farmers from subsistence production toward commercial agriculture reflects a strategy many economists have advocated for years. Zambia possesses abundant land, water resources and regional export opportunities. Success, however, would depend heavily on infrastructure, financing, market access and agricultural extension services. These reforms often produce results over a decade rather than within a five-year electoral cycle.

Mining occupies a central place throughout the document.

The manifesto correctly identifies one of Zambia’s enduring structural weaknesses: exporting raw minerals while importing finished products. Tonse proposes processing copper, cobalt, lithium and other strategic minerals locally before export. Economically, the logic is sound. Every major resource-producing country seeks greater value addition.

The obstacle is capital.

Smelters, battery plants, refining facilities and manufacturing operations require billions of dollars in investment, stable power supplies, skilled labour and predictable regulation. The opportunity exists. The implementation challenge remains substantial.

One proposal likely to attract considerable attention is the formalisation of artisanal and small-scale mining.

Politically, this resonates strongly on the Copperbelt and in emerging mining districts where communities often feel excluded from mineral wealth. Economically, formalisation can increase tax revenue, improve safety standards and broaden participation. Yet the policy also faces a delicate balancing act. Zambia has spent several years attempting to restore order in areas affected by illegal mining activities. Any expansion of artisanal mining would require careful regulation to avoid undermining investor confidence and environmental protection.

The manifesto’s governance proposals are arguably among its most innovative.

Tonse proposes replacing traditional provincial administration structures with Regional Development Authorities focused on economic competitiveness and production. The idea reflects international models used in countries seeking to decentralise economic decision-making. Whether Zambia’s bureaucracy could successfully transition into such a system is another matter. Institutional reforms are often easier to announce than to execute.

Digital transformation also features prominently.

The commitment to digitise more than 90 percent of government services aligns with global trends and could improve efficiency, reduce corruption opportunities and lower administrative costs. Several African countries, including Rwanda and Kenya, have demonstrated what is possible through aggressive digital reforms. Among the manifesto’s proposals, this may be one of the more achievable goals.

Yet the largest question hanging over the entire document remains financing.

Almost every major proposal requires significant capital. New energy projects. Industrialisation programmes. Irrigation expansion. Development banks. Regional authorities. Skills institutions. Mining value chains.

Where does the money come from?

The manifesto outlines objectives more clearly than funding mechanisms. Investors, economists and voters will likely want greater detail regarding public borrowing, taxation, foreign direct investment, public-private partnerships and fiscal sustainability.

This does not mean the manifesto lacks merit. Far from it.

The document succeeds in placing economic transformation, jobs, industrialisation and citizen participation at the centre of political debate. It forces a conversation beyond personalities and political slogans. It challenges the ruling party on issues many voters care about deeply.

But manifestos are ultimately judged by arithmetic as much as aspiration.

The Tonse Alliance has presented a vision. The next phase of the campaign will require demonstrating how that vision moves from political rhetoric to economic reality.

That may become one of the defining questions of the 2026 election.

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