FOLLOW THE MONEY: WHAT DID THE PF AND UPND BUDGETS ACTUALLY PRIORITISE? (TO THE UNDECIDED VOTERS – THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POSTS)

FOLLOW THE MONEY: WHAT DID THE PF AND UPND BUDGETS ACTUALLY PRIORITISE? (TO THE UNDECIDED VOTERS – THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POSTS)

One lesson deeply embedded in me during my ten years of yeshiva studies (Jewish seminary studies) in Jerusalem was to never speculate where facts can be established. A fellow student who kept the keys to an important room was once given a few days off to attend his grandfather’s funeral. I insisted that he had mistakenly travelled with the keys because I had seen him holding them shortly before leaving. A rabbi friend kept asking me, “But did you actually see him leave with the keys?” I had not. We argued heatedly. An hour later, the keys were found, he had responsibly left them with another student.

I was embarrassed, but I never forgot the lesson that what appears obvious is not necessarily a fact. This discipline runs deeply through Jewish learning, ie, read, verify, interrogate the evidence and even challenge your teacher where the facts demand it. That is the principle I want us to apply to the figures I am about to present, ie, no speculation, no assumptions, let us check the evidence. Let us remove political rhetoric for a moment and simply open Zambia’s National Budgets.

I have gone through the Budget Speeches and parliamentary records from 2016 to 2026. This comparison is strictly about BUDGET ALLOCATIONS.

PF: 2016 – 2021 (6 BUDGET CYCLES)

2016 – K53.1 billion; 2017 – K64.5 billion;
2018 – K71.7 billion; 2019 – K86.8 billion; 2020 – K106.0 billion; and 2021 – K119.6 billion.

TOTAL BUDGETS, 2016 – 2021: K501.7 BILLION.

WHERE WAS THIS K501.7 BILLION EXPECTED TO COME FROM?

Domestic revenue: K328.2 billion
Grants: K12.2 billion
Borrowing/financing: K161.4 billion

Of the approximately K161.4 billion in borrowing (K42.6 billion domestic and K118.8 billion external). Thus, 65% of the six PF budgets was to be financed from domestic revenues, 2% from grants, and 32% from borrowing. That means that, viewed across the entire 2016 to 2021 resource envelope, K32 out of every K100 budgeted was dependent on borrowing.

Now look inside domestic revenue. Across these six budgets, approximately K64.6 billion was projected from PAYE/personal income tax, principally taxation of workers’ earnings. Mineral Royalty allocations across the same annual resource envelopes totalled K23.7 billion. The remainder came from company income tax, VAT, customs and excise duties, withholding taxes, fees, fines, levies and other non tax revenues.

UPND: 2022 – 2026 (5 BUDGET CYCLES)

2022 – K173.0 billion; 2023 – K167.3 billion; 2024 – K177.9 billion; 2025 – K217.1 billion; and 2026 – K253.1 billion

TOTAL BUDGETS, 2022 – 2026: K988.4 BILLION.

That is almost K1 TRILLION in five national budgets and not the 6 budgets of the PF.

Aggregating the five annual resource envelopes gives approximately:

Domestic revenue: K732.3 billion
Grants: K27.3 billion
Borrowing/financing: K228.8 billion. Of that borrowing, approximately K93.4 billion is domestic and K135.6 billion is external.  Therefore, 74% of the New Dawn’s five budget resource envelope is financed from domestic revenues,  3% from grants and 23% from borrowing and financing.

The aggregate New Dawn budgets are almost twice the nominal size of the PF’s 2016 – 2021 budgets (6 budgets). Note that it’s K988.4 billion (5 budgets) against K501.7 billion (6 budgets), yet borrowing represents a smaller proportion of the overall resource envelope, ie, 23% compared with 32%. Notice the distinction and remember that the UPND Government inherited a contracting economy with debt distress and default.

WHERE WAS THE MONEY ALLOCATED?

Instead of drowning ourselves in eleven separate annual figures, let us aggregate some of the major social functions.

EDUCATION: Across the six PF budgets from 2016 to 2021, K71.5 BILLION was allocated to the education function.

Across the five New Dawn budgets from 2022 to 2026, K133 BILLION has been allocated to education.

HEALTH: Across the PF budgets from 2016 to 2021, K44.1 BILLION was allocated to health.

Across the New Dawn budgets from 2022 to 2026, K101.6 BILLION has been allocated to health.

SOCIAL PROTECTION: This includes such interventions as Social Cash Transfer, pension benefits, Food Security Pack and related social protection programmes.

PF, 2016 – 2021: K15.9 BILLION.

New Dawn, 2022 – 2026: K56 BILLION.

That is a very large change in the architecture of social expenditure.

CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT FUND

This is another dramatic shift. Under the old CDF structure, allocations were around K1.4 million to K1.6 million per constituency during much of the PF period. By 2021, CDF was K1.6 million per constituency, or K249.6 million nationally

From 2022 onwards, the allocation moved to K25.7 million per constituency in 2022, K28.3 million in 2023, K30.6 million in 2024, K36.1 million in 2025, and K40 million per constituency in 2026. The combined CDF allocation for 2022 to 2026 is K25 BILLION. Note that CDF is no longer simply a small community project allocation. It encompasses community projects, empowerment grants and loans, secondary school bursaries and skills development.

THEN THERE IS THE PUBLIC PAYROLL

This is one of the most overlooked ways in which the National Budget enters household incomes. Personal Emoluments pay teachers, nurses, doctors, police officers, soldiers, civil servants and other public employees. For perspective, the 2026 Budget alone allocates K64.9 BILLION to Personal Emoluments. That single year’s public payroll allocation is already larger than Zambia’s entire K53.1 billion National Budget in 2016.

This is why the recruitment of teachers, health workers and other public officers matters economically beyond simply counting jobs. Their salaries become household income. They pay rent. They buy food. They educate children. They support extended families. They pay PAYE and that money circulates through the economy.

This is the kind of political discussion Zambia needs. Not merely, “Government has money.” Government does not manufacture money. Every Budget must answer two questions, ie, WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM? Taxation? PAYE? Mining? VAT? Customs? Non tax revenue? Grants? Or borrowing?

Then comes the second question, ie, WHERE WILL THE MONEY GO? Education? Health? Salaries? Social protection? CDF? Agriculture Infrastructure? Debt service? That is how we should interrogate governments.

The most interesting number in this entire comparison is this. During the PF’s 2016 – 2021 budget period, approximately one third of the aggregate resource envelope depended on borrowing. During the New Dawn’s 2022 – 2026 period, that proportion is approximately one quarter.

At the same time, the nominal allocations to education, health, social protection and decentralised funding have risen substantially. Those are not campaign songs.  They are numbers contained in Zambia’s National Budgets.

You may disagree with how Government spends. You may question implementation. You may question priorities. Those are legitimate debates, BUT FIRST OPEN THE BUDGET. FOLLOW THE MONEY. Then argue from the numbers.

Zambia Forward, TOGETHER in UNITY. 

Saviour Chishimba
President
United Progressive People (UPP)
UPND Alliance Partner