PART 2
GROW ZAMBIA MUST BE MEASURED BY VERIFIABLE RESULTS, NOT ANNOUNCEMENTS.
PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR TOWARDS THE 10,000 MW TARGET
1. GENERATION DIVERSIFICATION: PROGRESS IS REAL, BUT THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
Government cannot be accused of doing nothing about diversification.
However, installed capacity is not the same as electricity actually generated. ZESCO’s 2025 Integrated Report shows that hydro accounted for 82.88% of actual average electricity generation in 2025, while solar contributed only 1.51%. These are 2025 generation figures, not the current 2026 generation mix, but they demonstrate why the distinction between installed capacity and dependable energy matters.
The practical interventions should be:
• Publish an updated national generation mix showing installed capacity, actual electricity generated and dependable capacity by source.
• Accelerate investment in utility-scale solar supported by battery storage, so that electricity can be supplied beyond daylight hours.
• Develop complementary sources, including geothermal, wind, biomass and thermal generation where technically and economically viable.
• Expand regional power interconnectors and strengthen strategic electricity imports as a temporary reliability measure, not a permanent substitute for domestic investment.
• Publish annual targets for the contribution of each energy source to actual electricity generation, not merely installed capacity.
The objective must be to reduce vulnerability to drought and ensure reliable power throughout the year.
2. PRIVATE-SECTOR PARTICIPATION: APPROVALS MUST BECOME OPERATING POWER STATIONS
Government will rightly point to reforms intended to attract private investment, including Open Access Regulations, net metering and the Energy Single Licensing System.
The practical interventions should be:
• Publish a project-by-project investment register showing the developer, location, capacity, technology, financing status, construction progress and expected commissioning date.
• Separate projects into those at proposal stage, those with signed agreements, those that have reached financial close, those under construction and those already supplying electricity.
• Establish enforceable project milestones and deadlines, with transparent reporting on delays and cancellations.
• Make Open Access arrangements operational, predictable and non-discriminatory, with clear transmission charges and transparent grid-access rules.
• Ensure timely settlement of legitimate power-purchase obligations to protect investor confidence and prevent avoidable project delays.
• Prioritise competitive procurement and transparent power-purchase agreements to secure value for money for consumers.
The measure of private-sector participation is not the number of agreements signed. It is the amount of additional, affordable and reliable electricity actually delivered.
3. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION: THE MOST URGENT DELIVERY TEST
Increasing generation capacity without strengthening the transmission and distribution network is incomplete planning. Electricity must be evacuated from power stations, transported across the country and delivered reliably to consumers.
The practical interventions should be:
• Commission an independent national transmission and distribution capacity audit to identify overloaded lines, constrained substations, ageing transformers and areas with inadequate network capacity.
• Prioritise and publish implementation schedules for critical transmission projects, including the high-voltage lines and substations needed to evacuate new generation.
• Accelerate transformer replacement, substation upgrades and reinforcement of distribution feeders in areas experiencing frequent outages and rapid demand growth.
• Expand smart metering, automated fault detection and real-time grid monitoring to reduce technical and commercial losses and improve response times.
• Publish quarterly regional performance data on outages, losses, new connections and network investment.
• Link public investment and utility performance contracts to measurable improvements in reliability, not simply kilometres of lines constructed.
The country must be able to transmit and distribute the electricity it generates. Otherwise, additional generating capacity will not translate into the economic benefits citizens expect.
4. FINANCING AND ACCOUNTABILITY: WHERE IS THE DELIVERY PLAN?
A 10,000 MW target requires a credible financing and implementation framework. Government must demonstrate how generation projects, transmission infrastructure, distribution upgrades and storage facilities will be financed without placing unsustainable pressure on public finances or electricity tariffs.
The public deserves a clear account of:
• The total investment required to reach 10,000 MW.
• The proportion expected from Government, private investors and development-finance institutions.
• The cost and financing arrangements for transmission and distribution infrastructure.
• The expected cost of electricity from each major project.
• The annual commissioning schedule between now and 2031.
• The responsible institutions and measurable performance indicators.
Government should publish a consolidated 2031 Electricity Delivery Plan, updated quarterly, showing what has been completed, what is under construction, what remains unfunded and what has fallen behind schedule.
CONCLUSION
Zambia needs more electricity to support industrialisation, investment, employment and economic growth. There should be no disagreement about that national priority.
However, a target is not a delivery record, and an announced project is not a completed power station.
Government must demonstrate that the 10,000 MW target is supported by credible statistics, technically viable projects, secured financing and a realistic implementation timetable.
The issue is not whether Zambia should aspire to 10,000 MW. The issue is whether Government can demonstrate a credible pathway to achieve it by 2031—and ensure that the resulting electricity is reliable, accessible and affordable.
Antonio Mourinho Mwanza
DPP President
Tuesday, 10 November 2026