HH will win 2026 but UPND will lose parliamentary majority – Pt 1

HH will win 2026 but UPND will lose parliamentary majority – Pt 1

By Leemans Nyirenda

The bad news for PF, UKA, Tonse Alliance, Mr Lungu and Dr M’membe and other opposition leaders is that HH will still win big come 2026, thus sending them into political oblivion thereafter. However, the good news for the opposition is that UPND will likely lose parliamentary majority.

Here are the 10 reasons why HH will win 2026 elections even when the UPND will likely lose parliamentary majority:

1) Failure to empower majority of foot soldiers

Upon winning the elections in August 2021, president Hakainde Hichilema (HH) was in a hurry to deliver economic and social services to every corner of the republic and allocated K25.7 million to each constituency every year. The allocation of this fund was done without putting in place a deliberate policy to empower those who sacrificed and fought to usher UPND in government. While there is a substantial number of foot soldiers who benefited from the UPND empowerment programmes, a substantial number of them remain in the doldrums. Representations and complaints were brought and continue to be brought to the attention of the UPND top leadership without success. Applications for CDF loans for most known UPND supporters were rejected and continue to be rejected to date because those responsible for reviewing such loans included local authority officials who in most instances were on the other side of the isle. Some of them were known and still known PF surrogates and remain in those positions. The result was that the implementation of the well-intended programme failed to realise the desired results. Further, the UPND did not make and has not made necessary strategic steps to change staff in top strategic positions at the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development especially at local authority level. Most of the local authorities were and are still managed by staff that embraced the previous regime. They continued to carry the vision of the previous government. This made it almost impossible to extend empowerment to those who had been denied the same in the previous government.

Individuals, companies, cooperatives and groups aligned to PF were and continue to be the main beneficiaries of CDF loans and programmes. In provinces and areas where PF was and remains strong, the situation is dire. Most UPND members, companies, cooperatives aligned to UPND continue to face discrimination and have not been adequately empowered or considered for empowerment in preference to PF members and those close to the office holders in these local authorities. The CDF guidelines have not helped much to bridge the gap because the elected officials in CDF committees merely recommend with the final decision coming from a hidden hand. There are a lot of UPND members that have remained frustrated, disillusioned and disenchanted and keep on groaning about the non-availability of empowerment. This failure to identify and empower most of these foot soldiers and supporters will surely affect both the presidential and parliamentary results come 2026.

2) PF and Independent MPs claim credit for development in their constituencies

In constituencies where members of parliament are either PF or Independent, economic development that is taking place, brought by the UPND government, is in most cases claimed to have been brought by these PF and Independent MPs. Most PF members of parliament claim credit for development in their constituencies and continue to oppose and disparage president HH. On the contrary, Independent members of parliament have been careful in their approach to this matter. They claim credit for the development in their constituencies and carefully praise President HH as the person they support. Their aim is to always eliminate competition from the UPND mainstream structures for those who wish to aspire for the parliamentary office in that constituency. In most instances these Independent members of parliament have compromised the UPND leadership at constituency, district and even at provincial level. The UPND risks losing such seats where these Independent MPs claim to support HH because when the political landscape changes, these same MPs will also change and support the PF, UKA or Tonse Alliance because that is where they belong. To trust these Independent MPs in what is perceived to be PF stronghold is highly risky and dangerous for UPND. There are already known examples and precedents.

3) Failure to successfully prosecute suspected economic looters and corrupt leaders

A lot was said and publicised about the extent of looting of public resources in the previous PF regime. Similarly, a lot has been said about suspected corruption by some leaders in the UPND government in the recent past. The failure by this government to successfully have these suspects prosecuted and convicted and sent to jail works against the current UPND government and will backfire on UPND candidates in 2026. Most suspects have already claimed and will continue to claim victimisation, selected prosecution and even persecution as they have been trying to get public sympathy. They are playing politics. They have continued to claim victims when in fact they are the culprits. Failure to arraign and successfully prosecute them will surely erode public confidence in the fight against corruption and this will lead to loss of votes to the same opposition candidates. The few that have been successfully prosecuted, convicted, and sentenced are not enough to convince Zambians that culprits have been brought to book. The plunder was at grand scale.

4) PF/UKA/Tonse Alliance richer than UPND

According to reliable sources within PF and indeed investigations carried out by this author, PF/ UKA or TONSE ALLIANCE combined are 10 times richer than the UPND and are able to sustain a successful campaign for long periods of time, unlike UPND. PF/UK or TONSE ALLIANCE have quietly continued to empower their members especially the foot soldiers and those in strategic positions of political influence. Because of the financial strength of PF/UKA or TONSE ALLIANCE their structures have remained strong and intact. Unless UPND undertakes comprehensive reforms on how the party should operate and audit their empowerment programmes so that their members and other strategic players are not left out, most UPND MPs will be casualties in 2026.

5) Scarcity of farming inputs for 2024 farming season

The availability or non-availability of farming inputs to farmers for the coming 2024-25 farming season will have a great impact on the 2026 elections considering that the 2022/23 farming season was chaotic in terms of input availability. The 2023/24 season did not yield the desired results due to poor rain patterns in most of the farming blocks and provinces. The 2024/25 farming season is a do or die affair as the lack of adequate rains during the last season in most farming blocks created massive distortions in the Zambian economy. This has stretched the UPND government to its limits. We pray the 2024/25 farming season will be blessed with adequate rains, failure to which the continuation of the current economic malaise into the year 2025 will create a political Tsunami for UPND. Such a scenario would make it difficult for UPND to win parliamentary majority in the 2026 elections even when President HH will be victorious. Suffice to say MPs from UPND strongholds will not be spared. To be continued in part 2.