By Peter Sinkamba

IF DESPERATE ANC GOES INTO COALITION WITH DA, THEN SOUTH AFRICA WILL HAVE A BOER PRESIDENT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE INDEPENDENCE 30 YEARS, AGO

In the wake of the May 29 elections, South Africa’s political sphere stands on the brink of significant transformations. With ANC securing a mere 40.18% of the vote, insufficient for an independent government formation, unprecedented political machinations loom.

ANC is desperate. It has three options to form a coalition government. First, it is with Jacob Zuma’s MK Party which garnered 15% votes. MK Party is willing to go into a coalition government with ANC on condition that Cyril Ramaphosa is not President. ANC has rejected this condition. It wants Ramaphosa to retain the presidency.

The next option is emergence of the Democratic Alliance (DA), led by John Steenhuisen, with 22% of the vote, as a pivotal player. But this option adds complexity to the unfolding narrative, potentially reshaping the nation’s trajectory which may land South Africa back into the hands of a Boer President just after 30 years of independence.

Here is how the steps that will lead to this scenario.

Step 1: As the ANC grapples with its diminished mandate, efforts to secure coalition partnership with DA to sustain its authority have commenced. Conversations with the traditionally oppositional DA are already underway, signaling a departure from conventional political allegiances.

Some analysts view this coalition as a pragmatic approach. They argue that prioritizing national stability over partisan interests is critical at this juncture.

“An ANC-DA alliance would mark a significant departure, highlighting a commitment to national coherence,” remarks Professor Thandi Moyo, underlining the strategic opportunity for the DA to wield influence. Obviously, DA will bargain for the position of Deputy President in the new government. This will lead to John Steenhuisen being elected Deputy President, and thus potentially the next President in the event of vacancy in the Office of President.

Step 2: There is speculation surrounding the vacancy being created in the Office of President and Deputy President should Ramaphosa and Deputy Paul Mashatile. Amidst coalition deliberations, speculation swirls around ANC Deputy President Mashatile, facing potential corruption charges. His potential removal could plunge the ANC into internal turmoil, further complicating its position.

Should Mashatile be ousted, proposing John Steenhuisen as Deputy President might stabilize the coalition. Steenhuisen’s integrity and leadership could rebuild public confidence and ensure coalition functionality.

Step 3: The Phala Phala scandal will surely be rekindled, if MK Party and EFF are left out by ANC in the coalition. The ANC-DA coalition’s stability could face scrutiny if the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) rekindles the Phala Phala scandal implicating President Ramaphosa. Allegations of financial impropriety could trigger a renewed parliamentary inquiry and potential impeachment.

In the event of Ramaphosa’s removal, consensus might coalesce around Steenhuisen, solidifying DA aspiration as a leaders of South Africa.

In any case, if DA holds the Deputy Presidency, its MPs would naturally vote in favour of the impeachment because doing so would launch a Boer for president.

Should these events unfold, Steenhuisen could ascend to the presidency, heralding a monumental shift in South African politics.

His tenure would likely be acronymonius. There are no laws established in South Africa to govern coalition governments. So, ANC would likely pull out of the coalition leading to collapse of the DA government.

While speculative, this narrative underscores South Africa’s dynamic political landscape going forward.

The prospect of Steenhuisen’s journey from opposition leader to President through coalition government epitomizes Africa’s evolving political democracy in sofaras, navigating intricate coalition dynamics and strategic maneuvers, thereby requiring indepth analysis of possible coalition governments and ensuring laws are in place to govern such before they happen.

Lesson learnt from South Africa as it charts its course forward will surely be essential for the whole Africa in terms of democracy constitutional reforms.