OF PROJECTIONS AND POCKET CALCULATORS
By Rev. Dr. Elias Munshya
In this election season, we have written of crowds and clowns. We have written of names and nonentities. We have written of surrogates and speakers. Today we must write of projections and pocket calculators.
A graphic is circulating on social media. It calls itself the Zambia Elections 2026 Provincial Results Projection. It is dressed in the colours of seriousness. It carries tables. It carries percentages. It carries a map. And it announces, in a bold headline, that Mr. Koloboi wins the presidency with 51.47 percent against HH’s 48.53 percent.
This graphic was shared by Mr. Elias Kamanga, Elias ishina lya mu cipingo, a senior member of the Koloboi Alliance. There is only one problem.
The graphic’s own numbers say the opposite.
Take out your calculator.
The projection assigns HH provincial votes as follows. Southern 903,256. Western 773,087. North Western 476,119. Copperbelt 504,265. Lusaka 591,915. Central 216,652. Eastern 239,239. Northern 222,880. Muchinga 65,051. Luapula 53,294.
Add them up. The total is 4,045,758 votes for HH.
Now add Mr. Koloboi’s column the same way. It comes to 3,849,293 votes.
On the graphic’s own province by province arithmetic, HH polls 51.2 percent and crosses the 50 plus 1 threshold in the first round. The headline claims HH gets 3,115,506 votes. Their own table gives him over four million. The headline claims a Koloboi victory. Their own spreadsheet elects HH.
They rigged the graphic and still lost the election inside it.
How did this happen?
The authors made a strategic confession without realising it. They conceded Southern, Western, and North Western to HH at margins of 85 to 90 percent. Then, trying to appear reasonable, they gave HH 35 to 40 percent even in the provinces they claim for Mr. Koloboi.
But that combination is mathematically fatal to their own candidate. Overwhelming margins in your strongholds plus respectable shares in your opponent’s strongholds is precisely the formula that wins Zambian elections. It is exactly how HH built his 2021 victory. The propagandists accidentally modelled the incumbent’s winning coalition and then slapped the wrong name on the trophy.
The deeper self sabotage.
Beyond the arithmetic lies the politics. Why would any campaign publish a map conceding three whole provinces before a single ballot is cast?
A campaign map is a message. It tells every citizen: we intend to reach you. We are courting your support. No region is written off. If the ruling party ever asked anyone to draw a fictional map, it would be red everywhere. Every province. Every district. Every ward. That is what a national campaign looks like.
Instead, the Koloboi alliance has published its own surrender documents. Three provinces gone. On their own propaganda. Before polling day.
The lesson.
Serious campaigns run on data. Pretend campaigns run on graphics. And the difference between the two is a pocket calculator.
When your headline and your table disagree, the table wins. When your propaganda and your arithmetic disagree, the arithmetic wins. And when the dust settles on August 13, the numbers will do what numbers always do.
Numbers will refuse to lie for you. Aiminina tente zoona.
Rev. Dr. Amb. Elias Munshya
For sure! These Tonse Alliance guys aren’t SERIOUS. They are LIVING IN STONE AGE where TRIBALISM was rampant.
HH’s running mate is from NORTHERN and she will carry VOTES with her.
Mundubile is will soon be put in political trash bin because of LISTENING TO TRIBALISTS.
Kelvin Fube Bwalya (KBF) is quiet. He knows the fire power UPND have on the ground. FREE EDUCATION, CDF-, Council Workers paind on Time SOCIAL CASH TRANSFER, etc..The whole rural VOTE is in HH’ pocket.
The works of the UPND speaks for it self.And you can’t neglect 3 provinces and expect to win an election.The true mathematics in terms of projection for the winner depends on 50 percent plus one.The good mathematician will understand that once those neglected provinces by “lampi” are gotten by UPND with a score line close to 100 percent then it would mean to get the required 50 percent plus one just needs about one million five hundred.The table for registered voters for the whole country must be on your desk to get proper calculations.”Iyi ni yo zibika but.” Meaning this is a well known fact.It is like the balance sheet.When the values have been fixed well you can’t cheat on the totals.It will be like the game of bow and arrows, the archer fails to shoot as he runs out of arrows.The birds are let flying no more shooting.
As long as we have mostly illiterate voters, our destiny as a country will be determined by illiterates, yes, the ECZ raised the bar a bit on those seeking electoral office to Grade Twelve but without also raising the bar on voters we as a country are back to ZERO regarding electoral improvements.
Clearly the illiterate voters we have don’t know what they want, instead of asking a candidate what that candidate will do for them in terms of development, all they ask for is how much are you giving me.
I implore the next set of legislatures to ensure they pass a law to eliminate illiterate voters from voting so that the country can begin to see meaningful development through selection of the right candidates vetted by the right voters and not these mostly illiterate useless voters that we have now. To them campaign time is Christmas instead of a chance to have the right legislatures. That is why we end up with mostly useless politicians as well because all they do is pay their way through
The survey done losses its projectability because it assumes only two parties are standing resulting in 100% votes only from the two