VOTE BRIEF | Parliamentary Representation Shifts as UPND Breaks into Northern Circuit
A significant story is emerging beneath Zambia’s presidential contest: the parliamentary map is shifting in parts of the country previously dominated by the PF and now central to Brian Mundubile’s electoral base.
Results received by The People’s Brief show UPND making substantial parliamentary gains across Northern, Luapula and Eastern provinces. Northern provides perhaps the clearest picture, with UPND reported winning Mporokoso, Luwingu Central, Kaputa, Kundabwika, Chimbamilonga and Lunte. Mporokoso is particularly significant because it is Mundubile’s political home territory.
Luapula presents an even more unusual development. UPND has been reported winning Mweru, Chiengi and Chifunabuli South. The province has historically been among the party’s weakest areas, making parliamentary representation there an important measure of how far UPND has penetrated territory once overwhelmingly associated with PF politics.
Eastern Province is showing a similar shift. UPND has so far been reported taking Chipangali East, Luangeni, Chipata Central and Chadiza East, while Sinda has also been reported among its victories. These results matter because Eastern became an important component of the PF electoral coalition during the previous political cycle.
The reverse penetration, however, is not yet visible in the parliamentary results reaching our newsroom. So far, we have no record of the Mundubile-led alliance winning a parliamentary constituency in Southern, Western or North-Western provinces. Seats reported from these regions have largely remained with UPND, with some going to independents. This remains an evolving count and should not be read as a final parliamentary distribution.
This creates an important distinction between presidential support and parliamentary representation. Early presidential returns suggest Mundubile has consolidated considerable support from the old PF base. But UPND appears simultaneously capable of extracting parliamentary seats from the same political geography.
Zambians can split their ballots, so winning a parliamentary constituency does not prove Hichilema won its presidential vote. Still, parliamentary results provide another measure of political penetration. If UPND is gaining MPs in Northern, Luapula and Eastern while retaining overwhelming parliamentary dominance across its traditional Southern, Western and North-Western base, the geography of representation is changing.
This is the penetration test of the 2026 election. Mundubile appears to have inherited much of the old PF presidential constituency. The question now is how much of UPND territory his alliance can convert into parliamentary representation. So far, UPND is taking seats from the former PF map. The reverse has not yet appeared in its three western and southern strongholds.
– The People’s Brief | Mwape Nthegwa