Political Analyst Sishuwa Sishuwa has predicted that President Edgar Lungu will stay in office after August polls because she will rig the election.
Dr Sishuwa also warned Zambians to prepare for another tough five years under President Lungu.
In a series of tweets, Dr Sishuwa declared that President Lungu will win the election but he will not do so democratically.
“I am calling the 12 August General Election. First, Lungu will be on the ballot for a third term because of the ConCourt. Second, he will “win” the election because of the dubious voters’ register,” Dr Sishuwa said.
“Zambia, brace yourself for a minimum of 5 more years of this terrible NIGHTMARE! I see a lot of wishful thinking about Lungu’s term coming to an end in August and an opposition victory in the elections. This wave of optimism is detached from reality. I do not see Lungu being removed from Government through an election. Certainly not an election that he controls,” Dr Sishuwa said.
“If a sitting president is able to both rig an election and control the Constitutional Court, it is hard to see how he or she can ever be voted out of office. It will take a miracle for the current electoral system to deliver a loss for Lungu,” he said.
Dr Sishuwa added, “There are two institutions that can stop him: the PF or veiled threats from the military. Or massive urban riots after results come out, though protesters will face a well equipped police force.”
Dr Sishuwa said many even in the PF want President Lungu to go.
“The last five years have shown us that he is not a bad leader. He is simply not a leader. But those in PF, who can get rid of him, are unlikely to complain if he does whatever it takes to retain power and help them keep their jobs.”
“Lungu’s determination to remain in office rests on two reasons. The first is fear of prosecution. He is already facing questions about the sources of his newfound wealth. Possible prosecution for corruption, embezzlement or criminal misuse of power cannot be far from his mind.”
“The solution, in his view, is to remain in power for as long as possible or until a pliant successor can be installed. In fact, Lungu might already be thinking about changing the constitution to either extend the number of terms permissible or abolish term limits altogether,” Dr Sishuwa said.
“A second reason Lungu may be so unwilling to leave office is that he is beholden to the business and political interests of certain individuals that contributed to his rise. This group is fearful of what might happen if Lungu steps down.”
He added, “This group is fearful of what might happen if Lungu steps down. So, in seeking another term at all costs, the president is not speaking for himself alone.
Dr Sishuwa charged that President Lungu does not qualify to stand for a third term but that he does not expect the ConCourt to confirm this position.
“All considered, Lungu cannot win a clean election. No wonder they created that register.”
He said, “It is possible that the prospect of Lungu’s continued rule is so depressing for many people that they do not want to consider it and so indulge in a kind of fantasy politics whereby he is defeated in a democratic election. Wishful thinking. No election will evict Lungu from Govt!”
“I may be accused of being defeatist for pointing out the likely, dubiously secured, outcome but I think it is important to warn people of what is coming in advance, and to help them prepare an effective response to “What is to be done? How do we wake up from this nightmare?”
-Lusaka Times