🟪 PUTIN COULD EXHAUST RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO WAGE WAR BY 2028
Russia could exhaust its military and economic capacity to continue the war by 2028 if its present rate of losses continues, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko.
In his first international interview since taking command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Ivashchenko told The Times that Russia recruits roughly 1,000 people per day—sometimes as many as 1,200—but is regularly losing more soldiers than it can replace.
He cited recent daily Russian losses of 1,410 and 1,511 personnel, claiming approximately 60% were killed. Western intelligence reportedly estimates that Russia is losing around 6,000 more soldiers each month than it can recruit.
If the present casualty rate continued for another 18 months, Russia would suffer an estimated 765,800 additional losses—459,480 killed and 306,320 wounded. Combined with current Ukrainian estimates, that would represent nearly 10% of Russia’s male population between the ages of 25 and 49.
Ivashchenko said Russian generals have requested another 800,000 troops following September’s elections. However, Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia can realistically mobilize, equip, train and integrate only 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at once. An intelligence briefing cited during the interview made the extraordinary claim that the average life expectancy of a newly arriving Russian recruit on the battlefield can be only 20 to 30 minutes.
That figure cannot be independently confirmed, but it illustrates how radically drones have transformed the battlefield.
Russia continues to rely heavily on numbers, but modern warfare punishes mass in ways previous wars did not. A trained Ukrainian drone operator can locate, track and eliminate multiple Russian soldiers without being physically exposed like an infantryman in a trench. The operator survives to launch again, while reconnaissance drones record movements, guide artillery and make it increasingly difficult to evacuate wounded troops.
This technology has helped Ukraine compensate for Russia’s much larger population. Moscow may still possess more men, but sending those men forward through a constantly observed kill zone does not guarantee progress. It can simply produce losses faster than Russia can replace them.
Ivashchenko also revealed that Russia is again operating communications repeaters inside Belarus to relay battlefield video because it lacks a dependable equivalent to Starlink. Ukrainian intelligence has identified six such repeaters along the border and says Ukraine possesses the capability to deal with them.
Belarus is also forming a new airborne brigade approximately 40 kilometers from Ukraine, although Ivashchenko said there is presently no indication of an imminent ground offensive.
Putin is attempting to fight a modern technological war with an increasingly exhausted model: more recruits, more assaults and more lives sacrificed for incremental gains. But in an era of drones, artificial intelligence and persistent surveillance, numbers alone may no longer be enough.