🟪 RUSSIA’S ELECTIONS ARE APPROACHING—SO IS THE MOMENT OF TRUTH ON MOBILIZATION
The warning itself is no longer new. What has changed is the urgency: Russia’s State Duma elections are now approaching, bringing the Kremlin closer to the point at which Ukraine believes another mobilization campaign could begin.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Moscow may seek at least 300,000 additional personnel. Whether that happens through an openly declared mobilization or a quieter campaign concentrated in poorer and more distant regions remains uncertain.
Russia continues to deny that another mass call-up is planned. However, its assurances have been carefully limited to what is planned “at the moment.” Moscow made similar denials before Putin announced the mobilization of approximately 300,000 reservists in September 2022.
The Kremlin has every political reason to delay an unpopular decision until voting is finished. Once the elections are secured, that restraint disappears.
The question is no longer whether Ukraine has issued the warning—it has, repeatedly. The question is whether Russia’s denial survives the days immediately following the election.