The 2026 election will not be won by strongholds alone- Antonio Mwanza

Antonio Mwanza writes…

The 2026 election will not be won by strongholds alone. It will be won by the party that:

A) maximises voter turnout in its strongholds,
B) limits losses in its opponent’s strongholds, and C) performs strongly in the battleground provinces of Lusaka and Copperbelt

THE FOUR ELECTORAL BLOCS

The 2026 election revolves around four major voting blocs:

1. UPND Stronghold
Southern, Western & North-Western Provinces
(with 2,256,822 total registered voters)

2. Opposition Stronghold
Northern, Muchinga & Luapula Provinces
(with 1,852,620 total registered voters)

3. Urban Battleground
Lusaka & Copperbelt Provinces
(with 2,727,335 total registered voters)

4. Kingmaker Provinces
Central & Eastern Provinces
(with 1,949,523 total registered voters

1. STRONGHOLDS PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION—BUT NOT THE VICTORY

The 2016 and 2021 elections demonstrated that every major political party relies heavily on its traditional strongholds.

Hakainde Hichilema secured overwhelming victories in Southern, Western and North-Western Provinces, while the PF dominated Northern, Muchinga and Luapula Provinces.

Those results created a substantial vote base before counting in the more competitive provinces was complete.

However, history also teaches us an important lesson:

Winning your stronghold is not enough.

The real advantage comes from:

A) High voter turnout.

B) Large victory margins.

C) Reducing losses in your opponent’s stronghold.

A province won by a large margin with high turnout contributes far more votes nationally than a province won comfortably but with low voter turnout.

That is why turnout is one of the most important factor  in this election.

2. LUSAKA AND COPPERBELT ARE THE MAIN BATTLEGROUND PROVINCES

With 2,727,335 registered voters, Lusaka and Copperbelt form Zambia’s largest electoral bloc.

Unlike traditional strongholds, these provinces are highly competitive and often determine the national outcome.

Urban voters are generally influenced by everyday issues such as:

• Cost of living

• Employment opportunities

• Electricity supply

• Fuel prices

• Economic growth

• Public service delivery

• Corruption and governance

Because elections in Lusaka and Copperbelt are usually closely contested, even a modest swing in voter support can translate into a significant number of votes nationally.

History shows that candidates who perform strongly in these provinces are generally much better positioned to win the presidency.

3. CENTRAL AND EASTERN COULD TIP THE BALANCE

Central and Eastern Provinces have a combined total of 1,949,523 registered voters.

Historically, Eastern has been a strong PF province, although the UPND improved its performance there in 2021. Central has consistently been one of Zambia’s most competitive provinces, with both UPND and PF recording significant support.

In a closely contested election, strong performances in these two provinces could prove decisive for either candidate.

THE PATH TO STATE HOUSE

The mathematics of the election are straightforward.

The winning candidate will most likely be the one who:

A) Maximises turnout in their own strongholds.

B) Wins by convincing margins.

C) Minimises losses in the opponent’s strongholds.

D) Performs strongly in Lusaka and Copperbelt.

E) Remains competitive in Central and Eastern.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Strongholds provide the foundation.

Lusaka and Copperbelt are the principal battleground.

Central and Eastern are the kingmakers.

Ultimately, the presidency will not be decided by which party has the strongest regional base alone. It will be decided by which campaign mobilises the highest voter turnout, secures the largest winning margins where it is strongest, and builds enough support across the country’s key battleground provinces.

In the end, elections are won by votes cast—not simply by voters registered.

Antonio Mourinho Mwanza

Monday 13 July 2026