THE $6.47 BILLION DOLLAR INTERVIEW

THE $6.47 BILLION DOLLAR INTERVIEW

By Soyapi Mapulanga: A PhD candidate, born in Lusaka, raised in Kitwe, & a registered voter in Munali Constituency

Fourteen candidates want to be Zambia’s next president. Fourteen. And yet for the single most important job in the Republic, we do almost nothing to vet them. A gym influencer from kopola or kabwe is trending more than  atleast 8 of the candidates with months before the elections. We screen the FAZ president more rigorously. We grill the Chipolopolo coach harder .

I am almost certain that a ZRA Inspector  interview is tougher than what we demand of the person who will command the armed forces, steward the national treasury, and guard over US$6.47 billion in reserves. Instead of competency tests and reference checks, we settle for AI-generated songs, manipulated video clips, and filtered campaign posters. I am astonished to hear complaints that there is not enough vote money flowing. I sincerely hope this does not change. We need to be sober when we make this decision. We do not need vibes or songs clouding our judgement. The future of the country should not be determined by an AI DJ.

Someone remarked recently, “We don’t eat statistics.” Fair enough. But we will not eat AI-generated content either. What voters need is a clear, verifiable performance record. A national scorecard. So here it is, drawn directly from the Bank of Zambia and the World Bank: exactly what each president left behind in foreign exchange reserves, and why.

Kenneth Kaunda exited in 1991 with less than US$100 million. Copper prices had collapsed, price controls had squeezed the economy, and external debt had consumed nearly everything. The reserves covered less than two weeks of imports. Frederick Chiluba handed over US$180–190 million in 2001. Liberalisation and mine privatisation were the right medicine, but persistently low copper prices and heavy debt-service costs kept the reserves almost flat across an entire decade.

Levy Mwanawasa broke the cycle. He left approximately US$1.1 billion in 2008. Fiscal discipline, improved mining revenue, and the completion of the HIPC debt-relief initiative finally built a meaningful cushion. Rupiah Banda then rode a copper super-cycle and left two numbers in 2011: US$1.9 billion in net reserves, the highly liquid, unencumbered cash, or US$2.32 billion in gross reserves, which include gold and other central bank assets. Both figures are real; they simply measure different things. Politicians have been confusing them ever since.

Michael Sata’s administration accessed two Eurobonds that pushed reserves above US$3 billion mid-term, but widening fiscal deficits and early debt-servicing outlays pulled them back. By the time of his passing in 2014, he left US$2.4–2.7 billion. Then came Edgar Lungu. His government undertook major infrastructure borrowing that, together with rising debt service, narrowed liquid reserves to US$1.2 billion early in 2021, a position that triggered a sovereign default. Yet just weeks before the August election, the IMF allocated US$1.33 billion in Special Drawing Rights directly to the Bank of Zambia. That unconditional, multilateral injection was an external economic event, not a domestic policy measure, and it lifted his exit reserves to between US$2.6 billion and US$2.9 billion. You cannot erase it from the record; it was real money in the national accounts.

Hakainde Hichilema inherited that complex position and rebuilt. Debt restructuring, an IMF-supported programme, and fiscal discipline have driven gross reserves to an all-time high of US$6.47 billion, roughly 5.7 months of import cover. That is the baseline today. Every candidate who wants the job must now explain how they will sustain or better it.

Before any candidate starts quoting numbers, they must absorb three hard lessons. First, multilateral inflows like that August 2021 SDR allocation are genuine economic facts. Removing them to force a cleaner political story is dishonest accounting. Second, net reserves and gross reserves are not the same. Outgoing governments usually report the net; incoming administrations audit the gross. Never compare one against the other as if they were twins. Third, the national balance sheet does not sleep between an election and a swearing-in. Royalties flow in, fuel bills go out, debt gets paid. The figure moves every single day. This is not a fixed deposit.

So here is the challenge to all fourteen candidates. Step away from the AI song generator. Put down the filtered posters. Sit with this record until you truly understand it. Know why Kaunda left so little. Why Chiluba had to run hard just to stay still. How Mwanawasa’s discipline built the first real cushion. Why Banda’s number has two legitimate faces. How Sata’s borrowing introduced new debt dynamics that later administrations would have to navigate. And how Lungu’s final figure reflects both a painful default and a substantial multilateral rescue. Then look at US$6.47 billion and tell the Zambian people, your interview panel, exactly how you will meet or beat that benchmark, manage the copper cycle, ride out global shocks, and never again let this nation face sovereign default.

I am not calling for an explosive public spectacle. The best interviews are quiet. They are moments where the candidate shows they truly understand the question, and where the panel finally hears the answer. That is what Zambia needs now: not louder rallies, but clearer responses. Not more posters, but a plan.

Here is why this matters beyond the spreadsheets. Foreign reserves are not just numbers on a Bank of Zambia ledger. They are the fuel that keeps the economy breathing. They pay for imported fuel, fertiliser, medicine, and the raw materials that keep factories humming and farms productive. When reserves run low, the kwacha wobbles, inflation bites, and the price of mealie meal becomes a daily terror for households. When reserves are healthy, businesses can plan, investors take notice, and jobs follow. Vibes do not create jobs. AI-generated promises do not pay salaries. Only a credible, costed plan to protect and grow the nation’s reserves can anchor the stability that working Zambians need to earn a living. So ask every candidate: how exactly will your economic platform translate into dollars in the bank and dignity in the household? Because that, ultimately, is the test.

The writer is a PHD candidate born in Lusaka and raised in  Kitwe , a registered voter in Munali Constituency.