THE NUMBERS DO NOT ADD UP: ZAMBIA HAS A SERIOUS ELECTION PROBLEM
By Brian Matambo | Media Director – PF Pamodzi Alliancec
There is now a very serious problem with the results of Zambia’s 13 August election. And this problem does not require complicated mathematics to understand. Let me use myself as an example.
On election day, I went to vote at Kabulonga Boys. I arrived at the polling station, joined the queue and waited for my turn. When I got to the polling assistant, I presented my NRC and voter’s card. She called out my name, my NRC number and my voter’s card number.
My name was checked against the voters’ register and confirmed. I then proceeded through the process and received four ballot papers.
One for President. One for Member of Parliament. One for Mayor. And one for Councillor.
I went into the booth and marked an X against my preferred candidate in each of the four elections. When I finished, I proceeded to the ballot boxes and deposited each ballot paper into its corresponding box. Then I left the polling station.
That is how millions of Zambians voted. So here is the question. How can you have dramatically more presidential votes than parliamentary votes from people who went through essentially the same voting process?
Yes, there can be small differences. Somebody may decide not to vote for an MP. Somebody may spoil a ballot. There will always be a few exceptions. But we are not talking about a few ballots.
An analysis published by The Africa Report has found huge differences between presidential and parliamentary turnout in a number of constituencies.
In just 16 constituencies examined, the difference is reportedly more than 170,000 votes. Think about that. More than 170,000 votes in only 16 constituencies.
In Solwezi North, the difference between presidential and parliamentary turnout is reported to be more than 46 percentage points. How?
That question must be answered. The analysis also identified at least 27 constituencies where presidential turnout exceeded 80%, when the national registered-voter-weighted turnout was approximately 57%.
And where are these constituencies? Nine are in North-Western Province. Eight are in Western Province. Six are in Southern Province. Three are in rural Copperbelt. One is in Central Province. According to the analysis, there were none in Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga or Northern provinces, the areas where the opposition performed strongly.
Now the problem becomes even more serious. If people entered a polling station, were verified against the same voters’ register and participated in elections taking place at the same time, we should be able to reconcile the ballot papers.
If the presidential ballot box contains substantially more votes than the parliamentary race, somebody has to explain where that difference came from. We cannot simply announce results and move on. Where did those presidential votes come from?
What happened to the corresponding parliamentary ballots?
Those are not opposition questions. They are mathematical questions. And mathematics does not belong to UPND, NRPUP, Tonse-Pamodzi or anybody else. The numbers either reconcile or they do not.
The Africa Report estimates that the suspicious difference between presidential and parliamentary turnout nationally could represent somewhere between 350,000 and 550,000 votes. The publication itself says this estimate remains unverified.
It also makes another important point. Even those votes alone would not wipe out the approximately 1.1 million-vote difference in the presidential result announced by ECZ. But if this happen in UPND stronghold, it is very possible that in NRPUP strongholds, Brian Mundubile’s votes were being reduce or tempered with in any other way.
Because this is only one method of testing the integrity of the election.
It does not tell us whether there were other irregularities. It does not resolve allegations about monitors being removed from polling stations. It does not answer questions about results forms. It does not explain what happened during the suspension of counting. And it certainly does not resolve the wider concerns surrounding the electoral environment, including the use of the army to intimidate the public.
So before anybody tells Zambians to accept these results and move on, let us first reconcile the numbers.
Bring out the polling-station results. Bring out the GEN 20 forms. Bring out the ballot-paper accounts. Bring out the voters’ registers. Then let us compare the presidential vote against the parliamentary vote, polling station by polling station, constituency by constituency.
This should not frighten anybody who believes the election was clean. I know what happened when I voted at Kabulonga Boys because I was there. I was one voter. I was verified once. I received the ballots. I voted. I deposited them into their respective ballot boxes. And I left.
Multiply my experience by millions of Zambians and you begin to understand why these discrepancies are so difficult to ignore. If the numbers reconcile, let the evidence show it.
But if they do not, and if hundreds of thousands of presidential votes cannot be satisfactorily accounted for against the other elections conducted at the same time, then Zambia has a much bigger problem than a disputed result.
We have a compromised election.
And if these discrepancies are confirmed, then the demand for a fresh presidential election will not simply be a political demand.
It will be the logical consequence of numbers that do not add up.
If Tonse Pamodzi alliance are not happy with the result, they must petition and present their argument before the courts of law not social media. That way, they will help to improve the integrity of our electoral system.
Complaining through social media is not helpful. It only contributes to raising doubts about our elections process whether the allegations are genuine or not.
So Tonse alliance, please commence your election petition so that the truth is established.