TIME FOR THE CALCULATOR: Copper Queens Must Beat Malawi By At Least 2-0 To Reach The Quarterfinals; Anything Less Means We Are Eliminated
After Zambia’s defeat to Nigeria at the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON), an interesting scenario plays out in which three teams may finish with the same number of points out for which only the top two will proceed to the quarterfinals from Group C.
This is so because Malawi, Nigeria & Zambia can finish with six points apiece. Assuming this is the case, who tops Group C?
CAF tournament rules apply the Head-to-Head rule before the goal difference, goals scored and subsequent other layers of assessment are factored.
It is expected that Nigeria will beat Egypt which takes them to six points and should Zambia beat Malawi, we, too, go to six points to join Malawi
Three teams on six points will have to be separated by article 71.2 of the tournament regulations to rank the top two who proceed to the last 8 of the tournament.
Article 71.2 will only apply to all matches among the tied three teams, not pairs. This means the results against Egypt falls off regardless of the scoreline each team would have recorded against the North Africans.
So the ranking will be among the three as in who beat whom and it goes in a circle. That is, Zambia beat Malawi (if we win on Wednesday), Malawi beat Nigeria, Nigeria beat Zambia. This means the three teams are tied at three points.
So if the three teams are tied at three points on Head-to-Head basis, the goal difference comes into play.
Goal difference among the trio: Nigeria sit on exactly 0 goal difference (lost to Malawi by one (3-2), beat us by one) — so Zambia’s margin over Malawi decides.
As such, a 1-0 win against Malawi keeps the goal difference level (all at zero goal difference) among the trio because the classification is for the teams concerned as in 71.2.1 which states “matches between the teams concerned”
Here is a simplified version of goal difference m. Nigeria sits at 3 goals scored and three goals conceded (three against Malawi, they scored two & one against Zambia) which leaves them at zero difference. Malawi is at +1 (they scored 3 and conceded 2 to Nigeria) so if they concede one goal by Zambia, their goal difference will be zero like Nigeria. And Zambia will also be at zero difference (they conceded one by Nigeria and would have scored one against Malawi). As things stand, Zambia is at minus 1 goal difference among the three teams.
When the goal difference is at zero across the three teams, the number of goals scored come into play. Nigeria and Malawi have both scored three goal which means they have the advantage to proceed to the quarterfinals with Malawi topping Group C.
The brutal reality is that such a scenario renders Zambia’s 6-0 win over Egypt useless. Ouchi. This hurts. But those are the rules.
