UKRAINE PUSHES RUSSIAN OIL REFINING BACK NEARLY A QUARTER CENTURY
Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is having a profound impact on one of Russia’s most critical industries.
According to Bloomberg, Russian crude refining fell to 3.6 million barrels per day in July—its lowest level since May 2002, nearly 25 years ago.
During July, Ukraine carried out at least 30 strikes against Russian refineries, oil terminals, tankers, and other energy infrastructure, making it the second-most active month of the entire war. If Ukraine’s involvement in eight additional attacks on CPC-linked tankers is confirmed, July would become the most intense month on record for strikes against Russia’s oil sector.
The campaign evolved throughout the month.
Early July focused on major refineries—including the Omsk Oil Refinery, more than 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Later, Ukrainian drones shifted toward oil tankers and maritime logistics before returning to refinery strikes in the final days of the month.
The sustained attacks have forced Russia to adapt by relying more heavily on crude exports while grappling with refinery outages and domestic fuel shortages.
The significance goes far beyond burning fuel tanks. Every refinery taken offline reduces Russia’s ability to turn crude oil into the gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel that power both its military and its economy. After years of sustained Ukrainian strikes, one of the Kremlin’s most valuable strategic industries is now operating at levels not seen since 2002. 🇺🇦🛢️