Opinion by Prince Kaliza.
There is one interesting observation being made by supporters of Brian Mundubile. They argue that, based on what they are seeing on the ground, he is on course to win the election.
Their argument is that large crowds are attending his rallies, where he is making promises that many Zambians find appealing.
But here is the question people should ask themselves: where did the Patriotic Front (PF) supporters go after the party lost the 2021 General Election?
Do you believe that the 1.3 million people who voted for the PF and former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu simply vanished into thin air?
The reality is that many of those 1.3 million voters remain politically active, and a significant number are now supporting Brian Mundubile on the ground.
On the other hand, where does the Brian Mundubile camp believe the 2.8 million Zambians who voted for President Hakainde Hichilema in 2021 have gone?
To assume that all or most of those 2.8 million voters have abandoned President Hichilema is, at best, wishful thinking.
So, there is nothing surprising or alarming about seeing PF loyalists rallying behind Brian Mundubile across the country.
Likewise, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the approximately 1.3 million PF supporters believing they can persuade enough voters to defeat the 2.8 million who backed Hakainde Hichilema.
After all, that is the essence of democracy.
But here is my conclusion: Brian Mundubile cannot win the 13th August General Election.
If he performs strongly, he could secure around 1.5 million votes. If President Hakainde Hichilema does not retains most of his 2021 active support base, he could still receive about 2.5 million votes from the 2.8 million who backed him previously.
So it will take alot for Brian Mundubile to win the 13th August 2026 General elections.
1.5 million votes is too much for someone who wants to rule like Lungu, threatens civil servants and syas reserves and inflation are useless.