ZAMBIA TARGETS AN AVERAGE OF 7% GROWTH AS GREEN PAPER SHIFTS POLICY FROM STABILIZATION TO EXPANSION
Zambia is targeting average economic growth of 7 percent between 2027 and 2029 as the Government shifts policy focus from macroeconomic stabilization toward higher production, investment, exports, for increased employment and household incomes.
The Ministry of Finance and National Planning has published the 2027–2029 Medium Term Budget Plan and the 2027 National Budget Green Paper, available here, setting out the fiscal and macroeconomic framework that will guide the formulation of the 2027 National Budget and implementation of medium-term development priorities.
The Green Paper is aligned with National Development Planning and Vision 2030 and provides stakeholders an opportunity to help refine Government policy priorities for 2027–2029
Secretary to the Treasury Mr. FELIX NKULUKUSA says the framework builds on progress achieved following Zambia’s external debt restructuring and stabilization of key macroeconomic fundamentals
“Following the successful external debt restructuring and the stabilization of macro-economic fundamentals, a number of positive developments have been attained,” Mr. NKULUKUSA states.
Annual inflation declined to 6.1 percent in September 2026, from 11.2 percent in December 2025 and 16.7 percent in December 2024. The Kwacha has so far strengthened to an average K17.81 per US dollar in 2026, while gross international reserves have risen above US$5.5 billion, representing more than four months of import cover. The merchandise trade balance recorded a US$1.6 billion surplus by end-June 2026.
Despite these gains, the Green Paper identifies fiscal pressures arising from climate change, geopolitical tensions, lower-than-projected revenue collections and increased expenditure demands.
The Government will therefore strengthen domestic resource mobilization, rationalize expenditure toward higher-impact priorities and continue pursuing climate-related and concessional financing.
Under the medium-term macroeconomic framework, growth is projected at 6.0 percent in 2027, 7.5 percent in 2028 and 7.1 percent in 2029. Inflation will be maintained within the 6–8 percent target band, reserves above three months of import cover, domestic revenue increased to at least 22.8 percent of GDP by 2029, and net domestic borrowing reduced to no more than 2.0 percent of GDP.
The strategy marks a transition from the stabilization agenda of the previous five years toward accelerated growth anchored on the 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 production targets i.e. 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000 megawatts of electricity generation, 5 million tourist arrivals, 3 million tonnes of copper, 3 million tonnes of soybeans, 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of sugar and US$1 billion in beef export earning
The framework places export-led industrialization at the center of economic transformation and job creation. Agriculture policy will target higher productivity, expansion of irrigated land to at least 500,000 hectares, mechanization, climate-resilient farming and continued implementation of FISP through the e-voucher system.
Mining growth is projected to average 14.7 percent, supported by brownfield and greenfield investments, increased exploration and measures to scale copper production toward 3 million tonnes. The Government will continue with the operationalization of the Minerals Regulatory Commission and implement the Critical Minerals Strategy to promote beneficiation of minerals including lithium, cobalt and nickel
In energy, the Government will accelerate diversification toward 10,000 megawatts by 2031, including more than 1,000 megawatts of solar photovoltaic generation and over 500 megawatts from coal in 2027, while expanding domestic and cross-border transmission infrastructure. The tourism sector will target 5 million annual arrivals, while transport investments will strengthen strategic corridors, including the Lobito, TAZARA, and other routes.
Human and social development will remain a core pillar, with continued free education, school feeding, teacher and health-worker recruitment, medicines and medical supplies, development of health infrastructure, as well as facilitation of the Social Cash Transfer and Food Security Pack programmes
The Government will simultaneously strengthen public financial management, maintain debt sustainability and pursue proactive liability-management operations. A proposed 20-year Government bond will extend the domestic yield curve, mobilize long-term financing and reduce refinancing risk.
Fiscal policy will be supported by the 2027–2031 Medium-Term Revenue Strategy, aimed at broadening the tax base, reviewing tax incentives, strengthening property taxation, bringing informal businesses, SMEs and artisanal mining into simplified tax regimes, leveraging digital payment platforms and strengthening action against tax evasion and smuggling.
The financing strategy will prioritize concessional external financing, fixed-rate domestic securities and debt management sustainability, while expenditure will be redirected toward high-impact and catalytic interventions.
Over 2027–2029, the Government proposes K231.8 billion for personnel emoluments, K212.2 billion for debt service, K148.6 billion for transfers and K63.2 billion for social benefits. The public-sector wage bill will be contained within 35 percent of domestic revenue, with recruitments prioritizing education and health.
A further K125.1 billion is proposed for non-financial assets, including K42.1 billion for roads, K26.0 billion for hospitals and public universities, K9.9 billion for provincial aerodromes, K6.9 billion for water and sanitation infrastructure and K2.4 billion for rural electrification. The Government has also allocated K37.8 billion to dismantle domestic arrears and inject liquidity into the economy.
Overall functional allocations will prioritize General Public Services, Economic Affairs, Education, Health and Social Protection, reinforcing the Green Paper’s central objective of converting macroeconomic stability into investment, production, jobs, stronger public services and improved living standard
Commenting on the Green Paper issued by the Secretary to the Treasury on behalf of the Government, Finance and National Planning Minister Dr. SITUMBEKO MUSOKOTWANE, MP, said the next phase of Zambia’s economic program will require coordinated action by the Government, the private sector and citizens to translate stability into measurable growth.
“Macroeconomic stability is not an end in itself. It must provide the foundation for more investment, higher production, stronger exports, more jobs and better incomes for our people. As the Secretary to the Treasury has stated, and as I have said many times before, the task before us now is to turn the stability we have achieved into economic opportunities that reach households, businesses and communities across the country,” Dr. MUSOKOTWANE has stated.
He recalled that the Republican President Mr. HAKAINDE HICHILEMA recently emphasized the same imperative as the country transitions from stabilization to accelerated growth. “There are no two ways about it,” Dr. MUSOKOTWANE emphasized.
He said the private sector should respond by expanding investment, production, value addition and exports, while taking advantage of opportunities being created in agriculture, mining, energy, tourism, manufacturing and other productive sectors.
The Minister has appealed to financial institutions to deepen access to productive financing, particularly for businesses, farmers, manufacturers, exporters and emerging enterprises, while professional bodies and the business community have been requested to identify practical reforms that can improve competitiveness, productivity and the investment environment.
Dr. MUSOKOTWANE has also called on civil society organizations and citizens to scrutinize the Green Paper and contribute constructive proposals that will strengthen accountability, improve public-service delivery, and ensure that growth translates into tangible improvements in living standards for the people of Zambia
He urged the academia, research institutions and policy specialists to provide evidence-based analysis that will help the Government to refine its revenue, expenditure, investment and growth assumptions, while development partners are expected to increasingly align their support with Zambia’s priorities for productive investment, job-creation, climate resilience, infrastructure, inclusive growth, and social sector protection.
“The Government will continue to provide the policy framework, maintain fiscal and debt discipline, and improve the environment for investment. But growing the economy is a shared responsibility. Therefore, every sector must ask what it will produce, where it will invest, what it will export, and how many jobs it will create to bring more Zambians into formal employment and income-earning opportunities. That is the practical meaning of the collective approach underpinning the Grow Zambia Agenda,” Dr. MUSOKOTWANE, said.
The Government invites businesses, civil society organizations, professional bodies, development partners, academia and citizens to review the Green Paper and submit recommendations by October 9, 2026. The submissions will inform finalization of both the 2027–2029 Medium Term Budget Plan and the 2027 National Budget.
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DOWNLOAD THE GREEN PAPER, HERE: https://www.mofnp.gov.zm/?wpdmpro=2027-2029-medium-term-budget-plan-and-the-2027-budget-green-paper
SUBMIT PROPOSALS VIA:
- budget.office@mofnp.gov.zm
- treasury.briefs@mofnp.gov.zm