🇿🇲 UP-CLOSE | Copper surges above $14,200 as Hichilema keeps Musokotwane at Finance
Zambia is entering President Hakainde Hichilema’s second term with copper above $14,200 per tonne, handing the country a powerful economic opportunity just as the President begins putting together the team expected to deliver his ambitious growth agenda.
Latest Zambia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative data puts copper at $14,233 per tonne on September 11, up 14.57 percent from $12,423 at the beginning of January. Prices eased by about 0.7 percent last week, but remain at historically strong levels. International trading has been influenced not only by expectations of growing copper demand, but also by buyers positioning themselves ahead of possible changes to United States tariffs on refined copper.
For Zambia, this is the kind of copper market governments hope for. But the price alone will not transform the economy. Zambia still has to mine more copper, keep the mines powered, attract investment and convert stronger export earnings into government revenue, jobs and greater foreign-exchange flows.
This is the economic environment into which Situmbeko Musokotwane returns as Minister of Finance and National Planning. Hichilema has chosen continuity at the Treasury, but the assignment has changed. His first term was dominated by debt restructuring, inflation and economic stabilisation.
The second begins with a harder political and economic question: when does that stability begin to show up in people’s lives?
The shape of the emerging Cabinet offers some clues. Roma Chilengi, the former Director-General of the Zambia National Public Health Institute, takes Health; Mulambo Haimbe returns to Foreign Affairs, while University of Zambia academic Gilbert Siame takes Green Economy and Environment.
The early choices point towards a combination of continuity and technical expertise as Hichilema turns towards implementation.
This matters because the President has set Zambia a formidable target: three million tonnes of copper production annually by 2031. High international prices strengthen the case for investment, but reaching that production level will depend on what happens underground and above it.
Mines need capital. Expansion needs electricity. Investors need predictable policy. And Government needs to capture enough value from the sector without undermining the investment required to expand it.
The economic push also comes as Zambia continues strengthening relationships with major international partners. The Duchess of Edinburgh begins an official visit to Zambia on September 14, with engagements covering education, women’s enterprise, health, conservation and culture.
Her visit places the longstanding UK-Zambia relationship back in focus at a moment when Lusaka is increasingly presenting itself as an investment destination and regional economic partner.
Copper has therefore given Hichilema a favourable opening. It has not given him an economic outcome. The difference between the two will be determined by production, electricity, investment and execution.
At more than $14,200 per tonne, the world is putting a high price on Zambia’s most important mineral. The second-term challenge is to make that price matter beyond the mine gate.
The People’s Brief will on Tuesday take an in-depth look at Hichilema’s new Cabinet, the balance between continuity and technocratic appointments, and what his choices tell us about the priorities of his second term.
– The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu