BREAKING: GOP Retirements Hit 100-Year Record as Trump’s Sinking Approval Threatens House Majority
House Republicans are abandoning ship at a rate not seen in nearly a century, and CNN data analyst Harry Enten says the writing is on the wall. A record 36 GOP members have already announced they will not seek reelection this cycle, surpassing the previous high of 34 set during the 2018 midterms, which turned out to be a devastating year for Republicans.
Enten was blunt about what the numbers mean. Members of Congress are smart enough to read the same polling everyone else is reading, and what they are seeing is a president sitting at just 40% approval. Historically, when a president’s approval falls below 50% heading into midterms, his party loses an average of 34 House seats. The best case scenario under those conditions? A loss of nine seats.
Democrats need to flip just three seats to reclaim the majority. Even the worst historical outcome for them still gets the job done.
The party with fewer retirements has gone on to win the House 80% of the time since 1982. Far fewer Democrats are retiring this cycle. That gap alone tells the story.
Midterms are going to be a slaughter for the GOP at this rate.