HH will win 2026 but UPND will lose parliamentary majority – Pt 2
By Leemans Nyirenda
6) Student bursaries/ loans and free education
Student bursaries/ loans and free education under the new dawn government have become game changers. In every district I have visited in the last two years, communities appreciate free education so much and praise for the President is everywhere. One would argue that the electoral victories by UPND for councilors at ward level are mainly a result of free education that people have embraced and appreciated. Voters now appreciate HH for letting their children go to school the KK way of free education. The expansion of government bursaries and loans to other private universities has made President HH a love of student populace countrywide, not forgetting that soon after forming government in 2021, he reinstated the student meal allowances. This is a very large constituency for the President.
7) Infrastructure development across the Republic
From the propaganda that is coming from the opposition, it seems very little is known about the extent of development that President HH and his government have taken to all corners of this country. While the opposition propaganda machinery can be said to be stronger than that of the ruling party, the opposite is the case on the ground. UPND has become very strong on the ground. UPND has scored highly on infrastructure development. For example, the neglected infrastructure development in Eastern Province, Northern, Muchinga and Luapula is now being addressed and construction sites are everywhere. Who would have known that the Chipata-Chadiza road now known as HH road would have been done to bitumen standard before 2026 elections after a decade of neglect under Patriotic Front? Talk of Chipata-Vubwi, Chipat-Lundazi, Lundazi-Chama in Eastern Province.
In December 2020 under PF government, when we were going round Eastern Province campaigning, on our way to Chama where I was subsequently arrested for unlawful assembly, it took us nine hours to reach Chama from Lundazi. However, the mitigating measures that the President has put in place of doing the road, it now takes only an average of two hours. It used to take five hours under PF to travel from Chipata to Vubwi but under this new dawn government, it now takes only forty five minutes. It used to take six to eight hours to travel from Chipata to Lundazi under PF but now the new dawn government is working on the road and it will take an average of two hours upon completion. Similarly, the road infrastructure development is everywhere in all the provinces. Almost all rural constituencies have secured graders for grading and upgrading of feeder roads to the delight of farmers and communities.
HH has no serious opposition contenders
The opposition has no serious credible contender or competitor to challenge President HH. Far from it. Like I have said before, even with a united front, HH would still come out victorious. It is the MPs that will have problems especially that the party UPND is courting some opposition MPs and Independents at the expense of some well-established UPND candidates.
9) Resolution of the current energy crisis
It is now clear that this government is on course to resolving the energy crisis countrywide. Generators have been secured and put in strategic places where small businesses are now able to have power every day. Solar energy continues to be promoted and the Zesco Solar Initiative will resolve much of the household power crisis. However, if the energy crisis is not adequately resolved by mid-2025 especially along the line of rail, most parliamentary seats will be won by the opposition candidates. It will be very difficult to win a seat in Lusaka and Copperbelt urban. That will be a huge electoral campaign issue.
10) The effect of swing provinces of Lusaka and Copperbelt
Any presidential candidate who does not win majority votes in these two provinces is unlikely to get the required threshold of 50+1. After reintroducing multi-party democracy in 1991, almost all seats in the urban constituencies of Lusaka and Copperbelt have been won by the opposition, save for 1996 elections when there was almost no opposition after UNIP boycotted the elections. Since then, the opposition has largely won the urban seats. The performance of the economy and generally the cost of living have a bearing on whom an urban voter will vote for. Currently, the cost of living in these two provinces is regarded as high due to effects of drought that has caused maize meal shortages and power crisis. The performance of the economy will surely affect most ruling party MPs in these two provinces though the effect will not be that huge for HH due to other measures that he has put for youth and small business development.