Hichilema Wary Of Democracy That Enabled His Victory, International Community Says…..
“As the country approaches this electoral milestone, the international community’s perception has shifted from the unbridled optimism that accompanied the 2021 victory of Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development (UPND) to a more nuanced and cautious appraisal of the country’s democratic trajectory.”
By KBN TV Staff Reporter
The international community has turned all analytical apparatus on Zambia and now perceives the upcoming 2026 election as a critical test of whether the “Hichilema era” will be defined by genuine democratic deepening or a strategic pivot to a more sophisticated form of hybrid governance.
According to a high-level international appraisal of Zambia seen by KBN TV titled: Geopolitical Risk and the 2026 Zambian General Election: A Comprehensive Analysis of International Perception, Democratic Resilience, and Predictive Modeling, the international community holds that the tightening of the legislative environment through Bill 7 and the Cyber Acts suggests a leadership that is wary of the very democratic forces that enabled its 2021 victory.
“The upcoming general election in Zambia, scheduled for August 13, 2026, serves as a pivotal moment for Southern African democratic stability and a critical case study in the evolution of third-wave democratization. As the country approaches this electoral milestone, the international community’s perception has shifted from the unbridled optimism that accompanied the 2021 victory of Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development (UPND) to a more nuanced and cautious appraisal of the country’s democratic trajectory,” reads the analysis in part.
“This transition is characterized by a complex interplay between successful macroeconomic stabilization and a perceived tightening of the domestic political and civic space. International analysts and geopolitical risk entities are increasingly focused on whether the institutional reforms enacted since 2021 are intended to deepen democracy or to structurally entrench the current administration ahead of a potentially volatile vote.”
Meanwhile, the report says human rights organizations and diplomatic missions from traditional Western allies have expressed growing alarm over the strategic use of legislation to restrict opposition activities and control the digital information environment. This “managed democratic continuity” is increasingly viewed as a defensive posture by the Hichilema administration to mitigate the political risks posed by a dissatisfied and digitally mobilized youth population.
The international community is concerned that the passage of the Cyber Security Act of 2025 and the Cyber Crimes Act of 2025 is viewed by the Journal of Democracy and Freedom House as a “strategic recalibration of power”.
“These laws reintroduce concepts of criminal defamation in the digital sphere, effectively bypassing the 2022 repeal of the offense of criminal defamation of the President by applying it to cyberspace. International observers have noted that these laws provide for sweeping surveillance powers, including the mandatory installation of “full-time monitoring facilities” by internet service providers for the interception of communications. Section 39 of the Cyber Security Act allows for warrantless or ex parte surveillance, creating what civil society groups call a “direct pipeline” from private networks to government agencies. The arrests of individuals for allegedly spreading “false information” about the President’s health in early 2025 serve as a chilling precedent for how these laws may be utilized to suppress dissent during the 2026 campaign,” says the report.
While recognizing the peaceful transfer of power from the Patriotic Front (PF) under Edgar Lungu to the UPND, which by international consensus, portrayed Zambia as a rare beacon of hope in a region where democracy appeared to be on the retreat, is however, encountering significant friction as the 2026 cycle begins to take shape.
“Geopolitical risk analysts now observe a backdrop of slow economic reform at the household level, which has begun to translate into social pressure despite favorable macroeconomic indicators. The international community’s perception is currently bifurcated. On one hand, multilateral financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and credit rating agencies like S&P Global and Credendo recognize the administration’s technical proficiency in managing the country’s debt crisis and restoring fiscal discipline.”
However, concerns are rife about what the international community sees as constitutional engineering, saying the most significant legislative development shaping the 2026 landscape is the passage of the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Bill No. 7 in December 2025.
“The international perception of this reform is heavily colored by concerns over “constitutional engineering”—the practice of altering the fundamental rules of the political game in the immediate lead-up to an election. While the government has framed these changes as an effort to enhance inclusiveness and modernize the parliamentary structure, civil society groups and international observers have highlighted several provisions that appear to favor the incumbency,” says the report.
“A central point of contention is the revision of Article 68, which governs the composition of the National Assembly. Under the previous framework, the President was permitted to nominate a maximum of eight Members of Parliament. The 2025 amendments removed this fixed constitutional cap, delegating the authority to determine the number of nominated seats to an ordinary Act of Parliament. International analysts suggest this is a “regressive” step for democratic safeguards, as it allows a ruling party with a simple parliamentary majority to expand the legislature and “flood” the house with loyalists without the rigorous public debate required for a constitutional amendment.”