Kalimanshi Predicts PF Exodus as UPND Emerges as Default Destination

🇿🇲 CONTEXT | Kalimanshi Predicts PF Exodus as UPND Emerges as Default Destination

The defection of Innocent Kalimanshi to the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) is increasingly being read not as an isolated political shift, but as an early signal of a wider realignment ahead of the 2026 general elections.

Speaking after being formally welcomed into UPND, Kalimanshi openly predicted that more Patriotic Front (PF) members would soon follow. “Ba PF bachili baleisa,” he said, suggesting that even senior and previously defiant figures within the former ruling party were preparing to cross over. His remarks come at a time when PF’s internal coherence has weakened significantly, both legally and politically.

Kalimanshi’s political background is well documented. During the PF era, he was part of the party’s grassroots mobilisation machinery and played a visible role in internal power struggles, including the 2014 extraordinary conference that installed Edgar Lungu as party president. His public apology to citizens for having “misled” them during PF’s time in power marks an attempt at political rehabilitation, but also reflects a broader reassessment taking place among PF-aligned actors.

The timing of this defection is critical. Parliament is expected to dissolve in May, a moment that traditionally triggers political movement as MPs, councillors, and organisers reassess their electoral survival. PF currently offers little certainty. The party remains fractured, its legal ownership contested, and its capacity to issue valid adoption papers for candidates unclear. For many ambitious politicians, that uncertainty is no longer manageable.

UPND, by contrast, has become the vessel of destination for defectors. It controls state power, dominates Parliament, and has demonstrated organisational stability. In urban areas like Chawama, where political mobilisation is driven by presence and networks rather than ideology, figures such as Kalimanshi bring local influence that the ruling party considers electorally useful, especially in by-elections and high-density constituencies.

However, this influx is not without internal tension.

Within UPND, there are growing concerns about party dilution. Long-standing members worry that an unchecked wave of defectors, particularly those associated with past violence or coercive politics, could undermine the party’s reformist image. Questions around discipline, ideological alignment, and internal democracy are beginning to surface more frequently.

There is also the practical issue of positions. As more former PF members join, competition for adoption, appointments, and influence will intensify. UPND’s leadership will be forced to balance inclusivity with loyalty, and pragmatism with institutional integrity. How the party manages this balance may shape its cohesion heading into August.

Kalimanshi’s claim that over 3,000 opposition members have already defected in Chawama underscores the scale of the movement. It also reflects a psychological shift. PF is increasingly perceived, even by its former enforcers and mobilisers, as a party without a future electoral pathway. Once that perception hardens, defections tend to accelerate.

What is unfolding now resembles less a battle of ideologies and more a migration of political survivalists. With PF unable to guarantee relevance or protection after Parliament dissolves, many of its remaining actors are choosing certainty over nostalgia.

The challenge for UPND is no longer how to attract defectors. It is how to absorb them without losing its internal coherence.

© The People’s Brief | Editors