Of Crowds and Clowns

Of Crowds and Clowns

By Rev. Dr. Elias MUNSHYA

HH is winning this election. All indicators point to that fact. There is nothing on the ground that shows opposition strength capable of unseating such a popular incumbent.

But of course there is this thing of crowds.

It is laughable. And honestly, it is regrettable.

The UPND today appears confident, humble, and measured. The Koloboi Alliance appears overly confident. Confirming that it is Aiminina tente kwa shala Uku Lusa. In the proverbial David versus Goliath contest, the Koloboi has cast itself as Goliath. As if they were the incumbents. The confidence. The show off. The PF arrogance. And above all, the dependence on the crowds they claim to pull.

This focus on crowds is a problem. Let me explain why.

First. These are not “mammoth” or “mega” crowds.

Each of the four opposition leaders who actually won the Zambian presidency pulled far larger crowds than what Mr. Koloboi is pulling today. Kaunda in the 1960s. Chiluba in the 1990s. Sata in the 2010s. HH in the 2020s. Every one of them outdrew what we are seeing now.

And remember. The voters were fewer then. The population was smaller. Yet when those men visited Kitwe, Kaunda Square, later baptised Freedom Square, was literally an ocean of people. And Kitwe came to a literal halt!

I am not saying Koloboi has no crowds. I am saying Koloboi’s crowds are small. Small by the standard of every opposition leader who ever won the presidency.

Second. And ironically. The PF Koloboi Alliance has placed undue reliance on crowds.

This strategy quietly benefits HH.

Incumbents have a historical tendency to muster larger crowds. They can compete with and outcompete the opposition on optics alone. So when an opposition movement stakes its claim on crowds, it is fighting the incumbent on the very ground where the incumbent is strongest.

The opposition must depend on something more than crowds. Or it must at least carry the humility of David trying to unseat a Goliath.

But the Koloboi alliance has done the opposite. They have whipped themselves into a corner where they elevate crowds and cast themselves as Goliath, while imagining they are fighting a weaker incumbent.

This is delusional at best.

HH will garner far larger crowds than the Koloboi alliance. If crowds are the chosen battlefield, the incumbent wins that battle too.

Third. The ground game tells the real story.

If the ground game is to predict anything clearly, the incumbent HH has it.

HH has fielded councillors and members of parliament in almost all vacant seats across 225 constituencies, 116 districts, and all the thousands of wards. The Koloboi alliance does not have candidates in almost half of these.

Right now, as we speak, the UPND has full steam campaigns running by their candidates, and I mean their candidates, in Kaputa and Shangombo. In Luena and Chipata. In Maramba and Nkundalila. Everywhere. In every corner. On every road.

A strong ground operation is what will deliver this election. Not photographs. Not drone shots. Boots in the wards. Hands shaking hands. Names on ballots. And certainly not AI.

And as for the crowds? HH will win those optics too.

As for the UPND, Do not fall into the temptation of complacency.

If we are to borrow the Koloboi framing, then let us be clear about who is who. It is Koloboi who imagines himself the Goliath. HH is the David. And David did not win by underestimating the giant. David won because he stayed focused, stayed humble, and struck with precision, ward by ward.

So grind this thing out. Ward by ward. Village by village. Vote by vote.

Crowds fade by sunset. Votes are counted at dawn.

• Rev. Dr. Elias MUNSHYA