OF POLITICAL STRONGHOLDS AND BEDROOMS
In the run up to the two by-elections in Mwansabombwe and Lukashya constituencies, there has been a lot of talk about political party “strongholds” and “bedrooms”. This claim by the Patriotic Front, where they have even gone to the extent of declaring certain regions “no go” areas for the opposition, is quite baffling.
Here is why.
A region can only be considered a stronghold if more than 50 percent of registered voters actually voted for a candidate. To understand this, here is an illustration. If a constituency has 10,000 registered voters, and the winning candidate gets, say, 4,000 votes, then that seat cannot be considered a stronghold for the winning candidate since 6,000 either did not vote for that candidate or did not vote at all. That seat can only be considered a safe seat if the majority (at least 5, 001 of the registered voters) voted for the winning candidate. But if 5,000 registered voters or less voted for that candidate, keeping all things equal, just one voter could come and vote for another candidate in the next election, thereby tilting the winning fortunes.
Now let’s consider the results of the presidential vote in the 2016 general elections. There were only 41 constituencies where more than 50 percent of the registered voters voted for the winning candidate. So that means, there are presently only 41 political “bedrooms” in the country. The ruling Patriotic Front has 7 of them in Luapula and Muchinga provinces (Chipili, Kawambwa, Pambashe, Chinsali, Shiwang’andu, Lupososhi and Mfuwe) while the opposition UPND has 34 “bedrooms” (2 in Central, 2 in Lusaka, all constituencies in Southern Province except Livingstone, 9 in North-Western and 4 in Western Province).
A staggering 115 constituencies cannot be claimed to be strongholds for any particular candidate. They can swing to any contender. There is no single province that can be considered a Patriotic Front stronghold – not even the Copperbelt! The UPND, on the other hand, can safely claim Southern and North-Western provinces to be their strongholds.
That being said, with the current economic meltdown and social upheavals in the country, what the Patriotic Front considers unwavering support for their presidential candidate from their supposed strongholds may not be forthcoming.
The upcoming 2021 general elections are going to be most interesting and UPND will have landslide victory.