■ TONSE ALLIANCE SPLIT EXPOSES OPPOSITION WEAKNESS AHEAD OF 2026
The opposition’s internal conflict within the Tonse Alliance is no longer a background issue. It has moved into the open and is now shaping Zambia’s 2026 political environment in ways that favour the ruling party.
At the centre of the dispute is a contested Tonse Alliance meeting linked to Dr Dan Pule and Zumani Zimba, where decisions were announced affecting the Patriotic Front’s position in the alliance, including a K50,000 nomination fee for aspiring candidates. This immediately triggered a counter-response from PF Acting President Given Lubinda, who rejected the meeting’s legitimacy and called for a Council of Leaders gathering after the by-elections.
What matters politically is not only who is right procedurally, but what voters are seeing. The public is watching senior opposition figures contradict each other openly, issue rival statements, and argue over authority rather than policy. For undecided voters, this reinforces an old concern: whether the opposition is ready to govern as a single unit.
Recent by-elections have shown that voter dissatisfaction exists, but fragmentation continues to dilute that sentiment. When opposition parties split their vote across multiple platforms, incumbency survives on organisation rather than popularity. This is how ruling parties retain power even under pressure.
The Tonse dispute also complicates mobilisation. Campaigns require clarity: who selects candidates, who controls structures, who coordinates agents. Confusion weakens all three. As 2026 approaches, time lost to internal battles becomes an advantage handed to the ruling party without a fight.
This moment is not about personalities alone. It is about whether the opposition can convert public frustration into a unified electoral challenge or whether it will remain trapped in internal legitimacy contests that voters do not follow and do not forgive.