What Authentic Opinion Polls are saying about the 12th August 2021 General Elections in Zambia
By Political Observer.
A) Don’t be cheated…
1. In the runup to the general elections of 12th August 2021, you will hear all manner of false prophecies, bogus scientific claims and outright lies about how the elections are likely to turn out. Don’t be cheated or frightened. All you need to do is figure out what is true and what is false, what is authentic and what is fake news.
2. In many cases, telling the difference between truth and deception is quite easy. Here are two clear cut examples, one showcasing an authentic and reliable opinion poll predicting the results of the forthcoming general election of 12th August 2021 and the other showing a set of blatant lies about the likely electoral outcomes in August.
😎 Results from the most truthful opinion poll in Africa
3. Political scientists and other experts in Africa know that the most authentic and reliable opinion poll in Africa is the Afrobarometer. This is because their approach has been time-tested, internationally verified as authentic, and nationally representative of the Zambian population. Their results are also always presented in an objective and transparent manner. Afrobarometer also uses locally based institutions to collect their data. In the most recent opinion poll, they used the Institute of Economic and Social Research (INESOR) under the University of Zambia (UNZA) to collect the data. The results for the last Afrobarometer opinion poll for Zambia are presented publicly on their website , where anyone can easily access them and check how authentic both the approach and results are.
4. Here are the main highlights of the latest Afrobarometer opinion poll, which was published earlier this year (2021). We have presented the key highlights with the questions expressed in the same way that they were presented in the Afrobarometer survey.
5. The opinion poll asked a nationally representative sample of Zambians which political party they felt [particularly] close to. The majority (52.4% of the sample) said they felt particularly close to UPND, implying that most of the country felt closest to UPND. Then, 45.6% of Zambians felt closest to the PF and only 2.1% of people felt closest to all the other political parties combined.
6. The opinion poll also asked Zambians which party’s candidate they would vote for if general elections were held tomorrow. Interestingly, the largest proportion of people who participated in the survey (38.8%) refused to answer this question. This is not surprising given that people generally feel unsafe to express opinions about politics in the country and many felt they might get unfair treatment under the law (see, Chart below). About 52.4% of Zambian felt that people must always be careful about what they say about politics in the country; and in a similar vein, 47.9% of citizens thought that people were always or often treated unequally under the law.
7. For those that did respond to the question in the opinion poll regarding which party’s candidate they would vote for if general elections were held tomorrow, 50.3% said they would have voted for the UPND candidate, Mr. Hichilema, while only 46.2% said they would have voted for the PF, Mr. Lungu. The rest (3.4%) said they would have voted for one of the other eight (😎 political parties presented as options in the opinion poll.
8. The opinion poll also broke down the question on which party’s candidate they would vote for if general elections were held tomorrow, by geographical location and sex of the would-be voters. The poll found that most Zambians in rural areas (53.2%), most males (49.😎 and most females (51.1%) said they would have voted for the UPND candidate if the general elections were held tomorrow. Therefore, in rural areas, among males and among females, the UPND was ahead of its nearest contender the PF by 8.5, 2.1 and 6.5 percentage points, respectively. Only in urban areas was the UPND marginally behind by 1.2 percentage points, and this was largely because of the 4.5% of Zambians who said they would vote for a candidate from one of the other political parties. [[UPND needs to pull urban voter from the other political parties to itself, perhaps through the Alliance]]
C) Example of a deceitful fake opinion poll
9. Recently, in early July 2021, mainstream and social media in Zambia was awash with the misleading result of a bogus opinion poll reportedly conducted by the Political Science Association of Zambia (PSAZ). The poll shows that incumbent President Edgar Lungu is likely to win the 12th August elections. The results of this poll are so bogus and deceitful that we do not reproduce them here, simply to avoid misleading the Zambian public. Instead, we highlight the many issues behind the opinion poll, which render it bogus and misleading. These highlights are slightly paraphrased from the notes, on twitter, by world renowned British political scientist and professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham, Professor Nicholas Cheeseman :
The recent PF opinion poll claims to show that the government “has a strong lead ahead of the August election,… but it is done so badly it actually reveals an attempt to con observers and voters!”
The advertising for the event said that ‘The Poll attracted experts such as Prof. Richard Elsen’,… But Elsen is not a Professor; he is not even an academic. Instead, he runs a Public Relations (PR) firm that – you have guessed it – helps [improve the images of] those with bad reputations, like the PF. [The blatant lie, purporting that Elsen is a Professor simply reveals a depth of disparate deception by the PF like no other seen in Zambian post-independence history].
The poll also claims to have covered a sample size of 59,628 which would make it one of the biggest pre-election surveys ever conducted in world history; it would have meant interviewing nearly 2,000 people every single day, an impossible task if you know anything about survey undertakings. In fact, most nationally representative surveys cover sample sized or around 1,200-2,400 respondents.
The sample is also bizarre, covering only 25 (out of 156) constituencies in five (out of 10) provinces. Even among the provinces, the sampling rates do not reflect the census. [The survey design is simply wrong, unscientific and unreliable!]
The poll also finds that President Edgar Lungu has a healthy lead – which is very different to more reliable surveys by the likes of the Afrobarometer. [As we have amply illustrated above], the Afrobarometer opinion poll shows the ruling party the PF significantly behind the Government-in-waiting, the UPND.
10. Prof. Cheeseman concludes by stating that: “This all suggests that the recently released survey was a deliberate attempt to influence voters, journalists and observers by creating the false impression that the result of election is a foregone conclusion. Only it has been done so badly it has badly backfired”. We need not say more on this matter than follow Zambians, be weary of deceitful fake news and bogus opinion polls.
D) But why the lies and deceit with fake opinion polls?
11. In case you have not caught it yet, we thought it is important to enlighten you about why disreputable and corrupt elements in our society would go to such great and desperate lengths to with lies and deceit founded on a bogus or fake opinion poll. The reason is simple: they want to disenfranchise you and discourage you from voting, using a fake or false impression that you would be voting for the losing side. This is a simple but fundamentally important point.
12. Explained in a relatable Zambian social-cultural context, when someone uses traditional charms to win over your love, the day discover the charms, they are rendered completely impotent. The peddlers of this fake opinion poll were publicizing it hoping the fool the Zambian people into thinking the 2021 general election is a forgone conclusion in favour of the PF. Now that the truth has been laid bare by the authentic results of the Afrobarometer poll results and we now all know that UPND had the lead running up to the August election, the lies and deceit of the PF are rendered completely impotent. We all know better and will keep moving forward and looking forward to change come 12th August 2021.
