A Double Edged Sword: 12 Signs of a possible Presidential Bye Election in March 2025 if Con-Court Departs from its earlier Decisions on 10th December 2024
…..10th December is a Bad Day for both ECL and HH because if the court decides otherwise, both shall be politically affected. If Con-Court takes a UPND thirsted decision to rule that ECL was ineligible for 2021 and stand as such in 2026, it will naturally nullify 2021 election victory for HH and plunge Zambia into a historic constitutional crisis-Zambia shall automatically become “a Bustard State”. And l know that Bwanaventure Mutale, Makebi Zulu, Jonas Zimba, John Sangwa, Debby Kambwa Aongola, Benjamin Mwelwa,Nkula Botha , Emmanual Tembo, George Chisanga, Charles Changano, Caesar Simukonda,etc, have already prepared litigation papers to petition and challenge the court for the nullification of the 2021 presidential elections and hereby invoke a tragic bye election within 90 days….
By Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba
1. If the tree is poisonous, then it follows that the fruits thereof are just as poisonous as the tree itself. In seeking to arrive at a determination that President Lungu was ineligible to contest the 2021 polls, the court will in effect taint the validity of the entire 2021 presidential polls. The validity of the polls will be brought into question if the Con-court delivers a UPND desired and leaning decision on 10th December, 2024. How can the 2021 presidential election be constitutionally legal if Edgar Lungu, one of the key candidates is deemed to have been disqualified and is treated as someone who illegally contested for power? This new litigant, Chizombe of the UPND has asked the same court to nullify LUNGU’S participation in 2021 and future elections.
2. The court’s decision on 10th December, 2024 will have far-reaching consequences for both ECL and HH as well as Zambia’s democracy and constitutional order. In his legal arguments, Constitutional lawyer, John Sangwa insists that “the logic is basic but crucial to our understanding of the state of affairs. Should the court find Lungu ineligible, it would necessarily mean the 2021 election was unconstitutional and should be nullified”. Sangwa continues that “If an unqualified person took part in an election, that election is tainted and must be nullified,”. These are Sangwa’s arguments in his written submissions as amicus curiae in the eligibility case before the Constitutional court itself. And l fully agree with him!
3. If the court decides that Lungu was not eligible to contest in 2021, it means that HH contested with a disqualified candidate, won against a disqualified candidate and the entire 2021 presidential election stands disqualified as fraudulent, illegal, illegitimate and nullified as provided in Article 52 of the Zambian Constitution. If the Con-Court departs from its earlier decisions on this matter, it means that both ECL and HH will be affected and lose out. Once more, Zambia shall automatically become “a bustard state”-a country without a legitimate ruler.
4. When it comes to the case of LUNGU’S eligibility, there are not shortcuts or simple conclusions as the case stand politically too complex and legally complicated for everyone. The categorical imperative on this score is that a court’s finding today that Lungu was not eligible in 2021 bears the effect that the 2021 presidential elections abrogated Article 52 of the Constitution. In the said Article 52, the legal requirement and instruction is that only “qualified candidates are permitted to participate in a presidential election”. In reverse, ECZ would be found wanted and the entire 2021 presidential election nullified and thereby rendering HH instantly out of power.
5. What is the legal implications on HH’s presidency, his presidential running mate and ECZ team? To start with, HH’s running mate, the current Vice President shall equally find herself on the streets. If the 2021 presidential election is nullified, both HH and his running mate lose out politically and shall need to step aside. The next question is who shall act as president and vice president in there place during the transitional phase of 90 days? Unfortunately, it means Lungu and Innonge Wina must be restored to overseer a presidential bye election and hand over to the correct, legitimate and true successor. It also means restoring the ECZ team of 2021 to administer this presidential bye election of March 2025 as the current ECZ shall be illegitimate and unconstitutional. This shall become politically catastrophic for HH, his entire government and Zambia!
6. What are the legal consequences on HH’s presidential appointments ranging from cabinet ministers, state house aides, the speaker and her deputies, Permanent Secretaries, ambassadors, commissioners, parastatal CEOs, court judges, etc? In December 2020, the Constitutional Court made a landmark judgement against PF former Cabinet ministers, their deputies and provincial ministers when it ordered them to pay back all salaries and allowances for illegally continuing to stay in office for three months after parliament was dissolved ahead of the 2016 general elections. The court gave Hon. Ngosa Simbyakula and 63 others 30 days in which to pay back a total of K4, 266,664 as salaries and allowances for May, June and July 2016. After 10th December, 2024, we are very sure that history shall repeats itself if the court decides against Lungu!
7. Certainly, the 2020 Con-court judgement on PF former Cabinet ministers, their deputies and provincial ministers shall become automatically binding on HH’s presidential appointments ranging from cabinet ministers, state house aides, the speaker and her deputies, Permanent Secretaries, ambassadors, commissioners, parastatal CEOs, court judges, etc this year if the same court makes a UPND desired legal decision! In 2016, the Law Association of Zambia (LAZ) and UPND general secretary, Stephen Katuka had taken the PF former ministers to court and the case was decided in their favour by the Constitutional Court in 2020. This ruling is coming for HH and his appointees!
8. So, if UPND folks think that barring Lungu for 2026 will help them if the Con-court denounces his participation in 2021 elections, let them know that the entire 2021 presidential election will be rendered null and void while HH will automatically be disqualified and removed from office as our republican president. In like manner, all presidential appointments done by HH will be rendered null and void too across board including the appointments new Con-court judges themselves. This judgement shall be a double edged sword cutting out the political wings of ECL, HH and everyone appointed by HH himself! The lawyers for ECL are prepared for this historic legal battle and l hear all the papers are in place for a new legal battle and constitutional war!
9. Unfortunately and ironically for HH and team, everyone shall by law be expected to refund the state treasury all the salaries and allowances obtained since August 2021. This is the legal and political implications of what is coming ahead of them if Lungu is declared otherwise on 10th December. There is no doubt that HH himself, his Vice President and all his appointees shall find themselves in the same shoes of refunding all their salaries and allowances if the worst happens to Lungu this month. The Con-court set a precedent and the UPND government shall not escape this trap! The Constitutional ramification are that, for Lungu to be maliciously stopped from gracing the ballot in 2026, such a measure will also inevitably trigger a constitutional crisis and government scandal for HH himself!
10. As we conclude, let us consolidate Makebi Zulu, Jonas Zimba and John Sangwa’s forceful submissions before the court: “The court must address its mind to both legal and public policy considerations in determining the question of eligibility. The consequences of a decision that serves as a weapon in the arms of an insecure political elite could be too ghastly for the confidence reposed in the judicial arm of government”.
11. Our learned citizens have further argued that “Whichever way you look at it, there is no exclusion of Lungu from presidential candidacy without birthing a crisis of legitimacy for the current President. There is every good reason to trash the Chizombe UPND induced petition”. Assuming the political elites in State House fear or dislike Lungu for 2026, ignoring these legal concerns and political considerations by compelling the courts to rule against ECL shall be suicide and chaotic for Zambia’s political stability and constitutional order!
12. In other words, On 10th December, 2024, if the court say that ECL was not suppose to run for power in 2021 because he was disqualified on account that he had already served two terms (2015 to 2016 and 2016 to 2021 itself), then Zambia shall automatically become “bustard state”-a country without a legitimate ruler. Then, they will throw everything into chaos as our voters shall become “political orphans”. What will be the basis of sustaining HH’s 2021 presidential victory and current presidency as if we have no clear laws on such matters? We have to all accept that the result shall be catastrophic for Zambia’s constitutional democracy and political stability. And Presidential bye elections shall be the only way out!
Dr Chris ZUMANI Zimba is a Political Scientist, Researcher, Author & Consultant specialized in Comparative Global Governance and Democratic Theories. He holds a PhD, MA, BA and Cert in Political Science. Zimba was President Lungu’s Political Advisor from December 2019 to August 2021. By philosophical approach, Dr. Zimba is a Pan Africanist as well as Afro-Christian by religion.
Email: chriszumaniZimba.cz@gmail.com
The panic in the ECL camp is scary with daily articles on the eligibility case. The narrative that if ECL was not eligible in 2021 then the whole election is poisonous and must affect HH s Presidency is a fallous and a blackmail unto the judges. Let’s wait for the judgement and see the judicial reasoning contained therein. Zimba is not a judge nor a lawyer and is being irresponsible to begin to cow judges into his reasoning and blackmail. For now let them be calm and wait for the judgement. Then we will all study the judgement and pass whatever commentary thereafter. Let them relax.
If that is your thinking then Lungu will automatically go to jail. Don’t try to frighten us. ECL was ineligible to contest elections in 2021 elections and in itself he committed a crime.
Edgar Lungu didn’t declare himself eligible to stand. So he committed no crime by participating in the election as a presidential candidate. For something to be a crime, it has to be spelt out in law, including the punishment that goes with committing the crime.
There are no complications baabaa. Let us take this issue as a normal one for ecample let us do or take a PROCUREMENTi move or process and see where we will end,.
1. Did HH compete with Lungu alone in the 2021 presidential and General elections?. The answer is a categolical big NO. In the 2021 presidential and General elections HH stood with many presidential hopefuls including ECL, The 2021 elections had a number of Predidential aspirants. These includes; 1. Harry Kalaba, 2. Seon Tembo, 3. Dr. Nervous Mumba, 4. Fred Mmembe, 5. Hieve Hamududu, 6. The UNIP candidate i have just forgotten his name, 7. Chishala Kateka plus plus+++. We had more than 8 participants, if this was a or in procurement, then we had more than three vendors or so. So if one was not eligible but forced himself in the procurement process and fails; then the issue will not be with or to the successful bidder but to the one who brought himself with fake profiles and probably the one who accepted his documents but since he flopped or failed the case remains with the fake vendor who forcefully entered the race when hè was no supposed to or not.
2. The words in any establishments matters and have life. The killer word here and in the Constitution which can not be divided or changed is “being sworn in twice”. If the Constitution says, ” a person who have been sworn twice as president of the Republicof Zambia is not supposed to run for presidency again. It then just ends there and just like that epela. There’s nothing like term of office which was for someone and he was just finishing it NO. The swearing in word or sentience is a killer bullet here, once resled it just clears the space and lives it open. And if someone was sworn twice this person under so whatever is not eligible to be sworn in by any means the third time. NO! NO! NONONONO…NO
Edgar Lungu’s supporters are in overdrive. It’s unnecessary. Let’s just wait for the judgement in the second week of December.
Even if we were to hold by-elections, HH would still win
And ECL wud be out of the race! HH wud be competing with nobodies. Such an election wud be waste of time when the results are foregone conclusion. Better to let the elections come August 2026, maybe with a bit of time the nobodies can build up a bit to make the competion worthwhile.
Well said Mankambiz, the unlocking key word here is the number of times the president or former president had been sworn in, epela. The person should not have been sworn in twice because he can’t be sworn in for the third time. People like Zumani should know that the swearing in does not look at the period one serves after being sworn in. You can serve for seven days like king Zimri in the Bible but that does not and cannot change anything, as long as you were sworn in when you started serving your seven day reign. So what matters is being sworn in. And Lungu’s ineligibility does not affect HH in any way, Lungu forced himself taking advantage of his position at that time, as a Lawyer he should known his eligibility better than other competitors which included HH.
this desperation for ECL is scary and dangerous in other countries one can be charged with contempt
The job of any constitution is guidance that their be ordinance in the choices.
If we follow your thinking, then the court will have discovered that it was not a Court, but workmates of ECL only.
others also have rights why do they say if the courts rule against their lawyers have already prepared papers to petition the court what of if the court say he is eligible what should others do can they also petition? lets learn to respect others for the sake of peace
This ka boy is an embarrassment to education. You can understand by just behaviour why unza has lost credibility considering he is a lecturer there and was conferred a PhD there! What a collosal shame! To have such low thinking lecturers at your main university as a country is a seismic travesty to say the least.
Zumani Zimba your 12 points of argument are baseless,useless and unsubstantiated. Let the people who are conversant with the law and constitutional matters drive the debate from the point of informed narrative.
ECL , whether you like it or not, he ruled at least four years of President Sata’ term to be exact, and four years is more than three years and that is a term.
Ecl is a cock
All his supporters are sucking the rotting blood out of CHIKALA LUNGU
Ecl was not the only candidate for 2021, the presidential field was wide open to all. HH won fair and square and CHIKALA LUNGU thinks he will return, what a bastard thought
Surely you should have known the consequences of a Chizombe tainted outcome.
It’s “Kuya bebele “. It’s back to the future !! It’s PF government for 90 days from 10th December 2024 to March 2025. Kwamana!!
The Lord has many servants,he chose Chizombe to end your government for a reason !!!
Insults can only be the language of those who cannot defend their argument,those who are cornered in defeat!!!
Kulipeekehya!
What is not there is not there no matter your wishes. Lungu is a bygone in Zambian political leadership. He thinks it is still those days when he used state power to abrogate the rules of the nation. Wait and see the COUNTRYWIDE CEREBRATIONS IF COURT RULES AGAINST HIM.
On point!!!
What nonsensical argument by this charlatan. There were many Presidential candidates and each one had to meet a qualification to stand and therefore if one is disqualfied, only that candidate, or player in a team, is red carded alone, is affected. The decision of the ConCourt will be delivered come 10th December, 2024 whether or not to vacate Danny Pule Judgment.
HH has lamentably failed, hence the fear of ECL. How can a winning president use a surrogate to sue a losing candidate? It’s the fear to allow ECL to contest the 2026.
Keep on dreaming ba Musonda.Lungu is not coming back.Lets just accept that he messed up big time and move on sir
Ba Musonda, the same “fear of ECL” argument was used prior to the August 2021 elections. Mr. Lungu was handed a third term attempt by his Constitutional Court. The rest, as they say, is history. Mr. Lungu suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of a candidate who was given zero chance to campaign. He lost by nearly a million votes.
It is high time Mr. Lungu was subjected to the law like all of us instead of giving him favours out of emotions.
Surely you should have known the consequences of a Chizombe tainted outcome.
It’s “Kuya bebele “. It’s back to the future !! It’s PF government for 90 days from 10th December 2024 to March 2025. Kwamana!!
The Lord has many servants,he chose Chizombe to end your government for a reason !!!
Insults can only be the language of those who cannot defend their argument,those who are cornered in defeat!!!
Bravo Chizombe. We are taking Lungu to the political BURRIAL ON 10TH DECEMBER.
To burry his incompetence, his Violence, his corruption, his Neptism, his Tribalism. Truly we are so happy this judgement is coming to ameliorate our suffering under him. Let the Broom sweep the dirty of MIDIOCRITY under his govt. LETS BURRY HIM FOR GOOD AND LIVE TRUE LIFE OF FREEDOMS UNDER THE NEW DAWN.
Chris zuma it’s only in your head that you are concocting this because when lungu is deemed not to be eligible it still doesn’t change the status quo. HH still remains president until 2026. Only difference is lungu won’t be allowed to stand in 2026.
Wrong!!!
Ba Zumani, how does the illegal participation of a candidate nullify an election if that candidate lost? Which law are you and Mr. Sangwa et al using? Tell us the particular law so that we can read for ourselves.
Just wait for the judgment before you can criticize. You don’t know what the judges will base their judgement on if they decide that Mr. Lungu was an illegal candidate.
Mr. Lungu is a master at illegalities and showed a high propensity to ignore the constitution. Even the way he ascended to the PF presidency was shrouded in lawlessness. Todate, no one will tell you how many votes Mr. Lungu polled at the PF “convention” at Mulungushi.
Mr. Lungu has a special talent for chaos.
Let the give a guide to this case infact Zumani has committed a crime by writing a script on a matter which is in the courts of law.May he be sued for contempt.
1. The issue in court is about sworn in for the office of presidency.
It is the matter of Holding the office of presidency by law in Zambia.
2. The issue in court is not presidential election petition.
4. It’s not HH who took the matter to court.
3. Lungu can not be a determinant factor of the validity of 2021 presidential election because he was not the only presidential candidate who participated.