By Kaleele Bwanga
Kasempa.
ANTICIPATED VOTE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN PF AND UPND IN THE 2021 POLL.
CONVERSATION WITH MYSELF:
In 2016 President Lungu won by slightly over 100,000 votes. He got those over 1,800, 000 votes from 6 and half provinces of Copperbelt, Eastern, Luapula, Lusaka, Muchinga, Northern and the 6 northerly constituences of Central Province, while Hichilema got half Provinces, 3 and half of what ECL got: North-Western, Southern and Western Provinces, and the 6 Southern constituencies of Central Province.
It therefore goes without saying that with votes from 6 and half provinces President Lungu managed to get more than 1,800,000 while Hichilema with votes from only 3 and half Provinces got above 1,700,000! The total difference between the two was a paltry 100,000. This is less than the total vote for a rural constituency! Where did HH get the votes to threaten Lungu’s short hold on power? Obviously from the PF strongholds of Eastern, the Copperbelt and Lusaka…he put up a very strong showing in those provinces that a repeat of the 2016 performance in 2021 could have seen the PF tumble and bow out in defeat.
Herein then lies thefear, worry and desperation in the PF camp. In Conversation With Myself, a consequence of information reaching my desk from my moles in all the ten Provinces, on 12th March UPND and HH many not carry these provinces of Eastern and Muchinga but the haul in votes will be more in 2016.
He will not do well in Northern Province but will post a significant improvement in Luapula Province.
On the Copperbelt, HH is likely to rake in votes from the city and municipalities while ECL will be relegated to the rural constituencies of Lufwanyama, Masaiti and Mpongwe but lose in the rural towns of those constituencies.
In Lusaka, Lusaka Central, Munali, Kanyama and Matero will flip.
However in North-Western Province, PF will scoop 2 or 3 seats, while in Western Province the ruling Party will grab 4 to 5 constituencies, especially the new ones. This is owing to UPND’s failure to carry out an investigation to find out which of its serving MPs are vulnerable and need to be replaced. Loving somebody at the top doesn’t make that person win votes at the bottom. The party must find out the pipo’s choice in each election versus their own choice. We lost a seat in Western Province in 2016 while PF lost several to independents
If this be the case, HH and UPND will go thru with about 56% of the total tally. No one in PF would love to hear this but truth be told.