There’s a lot to unpack in the original threats of Donald Trump – and the clarification from his military commanders.
His initial proposal of “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” now seems to refer only to ships travelling to or from Iranian ports. But even this is fraught with complications and risk.
Stopping Iranian flagged vessels is one thing, but what about an Indian or Pakistani flagged tanker? Chinese vessels have made up a significant proportion of the ships able to make it through.
Boarding a ship is technically an act of war, and certainly a deeply hostile act. The diplomatic ramifications could be huge.
It would set a precedent that would not go unnoticed in the South China Sea, where China’s ambitions over Taiwan are never far from the surface.
Trump also said “no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas”. It’s been widely reported that a fee in the region of $2m (£1.5m) is being charged for safe passage – an important source of revenue to Iran.
But this could be paid in untraceable cryptocurrency. How do you separate those who have bought safe passage from those whose governments have negotiated it?
Ultimately, this appears to be an attempt to escalate rather than to deescalate. “‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT'”, the president said. But the risk with that strategy is that sometimes escalation just leads to more escalation.- BBC