DR. GRIEVE CHELWA DISSECTS FOUR YEARS OF UPND ECONOMIC POLICY: PAIN WITHOUT PROGRESS
BY BRIAN MATAMBO – SANDTON, SOUTH AFRICA
On a night of sharp economic diagnosis and uncompromising truth-telling, Dr. Grieve Chelwa, one of Zambia’s most respected political economists, appeared on EMV Tonight with Ambassador Emmanuel Mwamba to deliver a blistering review of the UPND’s first four years in power. His verdict was unflinching: this has been “a period of great disappointment” and “a missed opportunity” for the people of Zambia.
The core of Chelwa’s critique lay in the debt restructuring process, the flagship promise on which President Hakainde Hichilema built his economic credibility. Drawing directly from Ministry of Finance figures, Chelwa stripped away the official narrative of victory. “We only succeeded in restructuring half of the debt we set out to,” he said. “About four to five billion dollars out of eleven billion. Four years down the line, that is not a success.”
Even after this partial restructuring, he warned, Zambia’s debt service profile remains perilously high: $1.2 billion in 2026, $1.1 billion in 2027, $900 million in 2028, levels almost identical to those that triggered the 2020 default. “These numbers are dangerously high,” Chelwa cautioned. “This cannot be referred to as a successful debt restructure.”
*IMF AUSTERITY: PAIN FOR NOTHING*
Chelwa was equally unsparing about the IMF program that has defined Zambia’s economic policy since 2022. The fiscal consolidation demanded by the Fund, government spending cut from 32% to roughly 25% of GDP, has, he argued, drained life from the economy.
“Walk around Lusaka today and you will hear people saying there is no cash in the economy,” he observed. “That is the direct result of government slowing down expenditure.” In real terms, it has meant reduced investment in infrastructure, health, and education, while ordinary citizens endure record-high fuel, transport, and food costs.
*MINING POLICY: GIFTS TO MULTINATIONALS*
Turning to mining policy, Chelwa accused the administration of handing foreign mining houses “a gift” by making mineral royalty tax deductible and lowering effective rates.
The results, he said, are catastrophic for public revenue: mining corporate tax receipts fell from K12.2 billion in 2022 to K5 billion in 2023, while mineral royalty revenues dropped from K10.4 billion to K7.7 billion.
The promised surge in production to three million metric tonnes of copper by 2030 is, he argued, a distant mirage. “We are far away from that target,” Chelwa said.
*THE GROWTH FIGURES DO NOT MATCH THE STREETS*
Perhaps most provocatively, Chelwa challenged the credibility of Zambia’s recent GDP growth rates. If the official growth is real, he asked, why has it not translated into better wages, lower unemployment, or a reduced cost of living?
He noted that GDP has not been rebased since 2010, likely overestimating the true performance by failing to fully capture the informal sector, which has been hammered by high fuel costs and power cuts. “If there is growth, it is not showing on the ground,” he concluded.
*PUBLIC REACTION: A STRIKING RESONANCE*
The program’s live audience responded with an intensity rarely seen in economic discussions. “Nobody can score this debt service as a success. Thank you Doc,” wrote viewer Tatulini Musukuma. Another participant, Christopher Ngoma, lamented, “The problem of us Zambians is that we do not take ownership.”
Several callers pointed out that Chelwa had predicted this outcome as far back as 2021, warning that the IMF route would deliver “pain for nothing.”
*A VOICE FROM THE DIASPORA: THIS GROWTH IS A LIE*
One of the most forceful interventions came from Anonymous from the land of AI
“I am calling from a place where load-shedding is so heavy right now we have only five hours of power in a day. Barbershops are closed most of the time. Butcheries have shut down permanently.
Salons are barely operating. And this is what I do not understand, how is the UPND government recording growth in the economy without production? It does not make sense at all.
This is a government that thrives on propaganda and lies. When the President licks his lips, you know he is about to tell another one. Growth that does not translate to the ground is not growth.”
Chelwa did not shy away from agreeing with such sentiments. His call for a reset, built on reclaiming control of the mining sector, rebalancing fiscal policy towards investment, and centering development on Zambia’s own resources, found strong echoes among Zambians at home and abroad.
*A SCHOLAR’S FINAL WORD*
In closing, Chelwa reminded the audience that the economy exists to serve people, especially the most vulnerable. “Reality is not optional,” he said. “Our people are struggling, they are crying, and their leaders are not hearing them.”
For now, the government appears unmoved. But the depth of data, clarity of reasoning, and moral weight behind Chelwa’s analysis may prove harder to ignore as the next election cycle approaches.
This economist lives in a cocoon. Has his head in the sand.
He is the kind of economist who thinks the kind of reckless borrowing and thief under PF is ok. And the debts and mess that they left should be swept under the rug.
He points to how this regime is struggling to sort out the mess. But fails to point out that “its easy to destory, but difficult to build”.
Put in the same shoes as this government would he do any better? No….however its so easy to be an arm chair critic. One wonders what his purpose in life is?
I do not understand Grieve Chelwa’s criticism. This is just the beginning of growing the economy again. It’s not even broad-based growth as it’s being driven by two sectors that had seen significant decline; agriculture and mining. Even then their growth is being held back by bottlenecks in electric power generation. No one is saying the work is done and completed. Manufacturing and tourism have also seen appreciable growth. I would rather see some economic growth than no growth at all.
It’s funny that he is the only economist who seem not to see the great progress made so far by the new dawn government. International institutions like IMF, WB, AfDB to mention just a few, including other economist both locally and internationally have all acknowledged the great progress made by the current administration. Let me remind the economist who seem to be basing his opinion on his feeling not facts that most of the sectors of the economy were almost dead in the previous administration. For instance, mining had almost collapsed and most companies were planning to close down their operations in Zambia, e.g. Barrick who own Lumwana mine and FQM but now they have invested billions of dollars. Another area, the country used to be an importer for all fertilizer, but today we have become a net exporter of fertilizer and even NCZ which was completely non operational has been resuscitated. GDP growth was in the negative but today it is in the positive and ranked among the top performers. I can go on and on about the many areas the country has made great progress during this administration but it would still be pointless, because if someone is blind, they can’t see something even if it right in front of them, the case of this economist.
Gentlemen we do not live in a vacuum, look at yourself as a barometer of what is happening in the economy, on your own household level what improvements have you recorded arising from the improvement or non-improvement of the national economy? are you better off now than you were prior to 2021 or is the opposite the case. These are basics which need no economist to make you see either the light at the end of the tunnel or the train to crush you.
Samlindo what befell Zambia was global, and internal. We may want to look at our own situation. But if the country was bankrupt, fertilizer prices went belly up. Draught slapped the country in the face. Do you think you as an individual would not feel the pinch?
Like pollution you may think you would be unaffected but in due course it will affect you.
For some of us, we have been passive but have become outspoke when we see the wrong things being cause like you. Poor policies have affected us. However, we need to distingush policy failure and non sense. As his title suggests. This man is a Political economist. We would eat his political rethoric dressed up as economics. These are people who are not trained to analyse and offer solutions. They are trained to dress up economic policies into political rethoric. Ukubwabwata fye. Thats why Fred Mmembe likes him. As Fred is all about that. At UNZA in the ruins, they get drunk and high and regurgitate what they lecturer said passing it off as an education. Grown men need to do better.
We are striking a balance between providing for society more the vulnerable, the collosal debt and the completion is infrastructure. So yes our personal lives have been affected by the poor choices of a selfish few. And we should never allow their kind near the coridors of power again. And a lesson the current leadership should take note of too. Public service is stewardship. If one wants to make money leave the public service and go and work in private sector.
Truthfulness is an essential component in the integrity of whatever we say or do. This article has exhibited a serious lack of truthfulness in the so called ‘dissection’. No objectivity whatsoever. Is it a matter of sour grapes? grieving over PF’s 2021 humiliating defeat?
I should think so…
Sour grapes for the so called Economist…
I wonder why he has conveniently forgotten to give us a position of where we were in the last 5 years or so and where we are now… Infact, he should have started from 2011 to date…
The comparison would and improvements made would then have been apparent…
Unfortunately, he chose to wear the Binoculars of his kinsman….
The economy was in negative – dies he understand where we were and where we are now…
Why do these chaps choose to lie – I have personally not come across any single barbershop that has closed down in the recent past as they have all transitioned to Solar shaving kits….
Yes we do have power problems but this is not something you improve at the press of a button…. We are able to see what progress is being made towards this problem – though slow, Progress is being recorded and shall soon come to pass …
Agriculture is on the rise… Basic Health Care Drugs are readily available in Hospitals…. There is Free education…. Public Universities accomodations is being addressed….
In all these areas, there are issues suffocating genuine progress but these are equally being addressed as the civil service is full of anti government workers…
In comparison to other countries in the world or Africa, we are far much better off than many….
The problem most of these chaps have is that their way of Free Leaving has been Disrupted by the Disciplined HH7….
NO MORE TANTAMENI SYNDROME…
I could go on and on….
HH has not even said that we should now pop the champagne, celebrate and take a holiday. There’s still much work to be done. Public finances remain in a sorry state.