⬆️ THE DETAIL | How UPND is Reading the Chawama Loss and Recalibrating for August
The United Party for National Development is treating its Chawama by-election loss as a stress test rather than a political collapse, using the outcome to interrogate how the ruling party competes in urban Zambia ahead of 2026.
Speaking on Diamond TV, UPND National Youth Chairman Gilbert Liswaniso describes Chawama as a “pilot project” for Lusaka and Copperbelt constituencies, arguing that incumbency does not automatically translate into votes in densely populated urban areas.
The numbers underpin his argument. Chawama has more than 92,000 registered voters and 111 polling stations. Fewer than 20,000 voters turn out. The opposition alliance, running on the Forum for Democracy and Development ticket but backed by Patriotic Front structures, secures just over 8,000 votes. UPND polls slightly above 6,500. The gap is roughly 1,500 votes. Liswaniso insists the real story is not the margin but the silence of nearly 80,000 registered voters who stay away.
“That is where the election is,” he says. “If you are in government and people do not come out to vote, that is the problem you must confront.”
Liswaniso rejects the idea that the loss reflects rejection of President Hakainde Hichilema. He argues the party must learn to win elections without relying on presidential visibility. “The President cannot be everywhere,” he says. “Party soldiers must carry elections on the ground.”
Operational detail dominates his postmortem. Chawama’s 111 polling stations break down into roughly 500 sections where what he calls “donkey work” happens. Messaging to marketeers, bar workers, and tenants matters more than high-profile visits. He dismisses roadshows as ineffective if they do not convert into votes. “Numbers come first,” he says. “Noise comes later.”
Liswaniso is unusually candid about internal failures. He speaks openly about frustration when ground advice is ignored by senior figures. “I drop tears when I see that what I advised is not followed,” he says.
“Then after losing, people start complaining.”
His sharpest criticism is directed inward. He accuses ministers and appointed officials of failing the party and, by extension, the President. “They are betraying the cause,” Liswaniso says. “Why are we in government if we are not protecting the power?” He argues that poor implementation, lack of consultation with party structures, and a focus on personal gain over political work are costing UPND credibility in urban communities.
The Chawama experience is now shaping UPND’s urban roadmap. Liswaniso names constituencies such as Kanyama, Matero, Mandevu, Munali, Lusaka Central, and Kabwata as priority battlegrounds. With just over 200 days to the general election and fewer than 100 days before Parliament is expected to dissolve, he frames Chawama as an early warning rather than a final verdict.
Opponents argue UPND lacks structures. Liswaniso disputes this, insisting the party fills every polling station structure and that the weakness lies in discipline and message consistency, not organisation.
What emerges from Chawama is a ruling party confronting a new political reality. Power has not eliminated the need for ground politics. Urban voters are harder to mobilise, less sentimental, and more likely to stay home than swing emotionally.
Liswaniso’s intervention suggests UPND now sees its greatest threat not in opposition rallies, but in internal complacency and voter disengagement. Whether this diagnosis produces recovery in 2026 remains the unresolved question.
© The People’s Brief | Goran Handya