Iran Pulls Back From Saudi Arabia, Spares Qatar — But Gulf States Remain In The Crosshairs
Iran has quietly recalibrated its strike strategy across the Gulf, deciding to limit attacks on Saudi Arabia and halt targeting of Qatar entirely a significant shift driven by fear of direct Saudi military retaliation.
According to two sources cited by The Jerusalem Post, Iranian officials believe the Saudis are “on edge” and assess that continued large-scale attacks risk triggering a Saudi strike on Iran itself a step Riyadh has so far avoided.
Since the war began on February 28, Iran has launched over 430 missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, targeting the Eastern Province, the Shaybah oil field, and Prince Sultan Air Base near Al-Kharj. Saudi officials had privately warned Tehran that any attack on electricity generation or water desalination facilities would force the Kingdom to respond militarily.
Despite the pullback on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Iran has indicated that strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE will continue as usual, according to the same sources.
The recalibration comes as the situation on the ground grows increasingly volatile:
Saudi Arabia expelled Iran’s military attache and four embassy staff on Saturday, declaring them persona non grata following what Riyadh called “blatant” and “repeated” attacks. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that the Kingdom’s patience is not unlimited and that it reserves the right to take military action “if deemed necessary.”
Saudi Arabia has also formally allowed U.S. forces to use its bases for operations against Iran a policy shift that raises the direct stakes between Tehran and Riyadh considerably.
Iran’s missile launch rate has declined sharply. U.S. Central Command reports ballistic missile launches have dropped approximately 90 percent from peak levels. Israeli officials say Iran has lost more than 300 ballistic missile launchers roughly 60 to 65 percent of its operational capacity since the conflict began.
What this means: Iran is managing escalation thresholds country by country, fearful that one miscalculation with Saudi Arabia could open a new front it cannot afford. The Gulf’s patience, however, is visibly running out.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera, Arab News, U.S. Central Command
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