Iran’s central bank has warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade, sources familiar with internal deliberations told Iran International.
In a stark assessment delivered to the president in recent days, senior economic officials said the damage inflicted during the 40-day war with the United States and Israel—combined with Iran’s already fragile economic situation—could take up to 12 years to repair.
Several major airports were damaged during the conflict, while strikes also targeted oil facilities, refineries and petrochemical installations that are central to Iran’s export revenues and industrial supply chains.
Officials involved in the discussions warned that the destruction of production capacity could trigger a sharp surge in inflation in the coming months. According to the assessment presented to the president, inflation could reach as high as 180% if shortages of industrial inputs persist.
The same projections estimate that unemployment could rise by around two million people as factories, service providers and small businesses struggle to resume operations.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati has been urging Pezeshkian to take urgent steps to stabilize the economy, including restoring full internet access and pursuing an agreement with the United States.
Tehran and Washington appear to be exploring the possibility of further talks following the one in Pakistan last weekend. Iranian economists have long argued that a diplomatic thaw and easing of sanctions could be the best path toward economic stabilization.
Iran has maintained a nationwide internet shutdown for weeks during the conflict, a move officials say was intended to counter cyber threats but which has also severely disrupted businesses that rely on global connectivity.
Iran’s digital economy accounts for roughly 5–6% of the country’s GDP, and the shutdown has cut off millions of entrepreneurs from customers, payment systems and online platforms.
Small businesses, freelancers and startup founders have been among the hardest hit. Many rely on services such as Instagram, messaging apps and foreign-hosted websites to reach clients.
Economists inside the government warn that prolonged restrictions could deepen the downturn and slow recovery even further.
The bleak economic projections have heightened concerns among members of Pezeshkian’s team, according to the sources.
Some officials fear that if the economic crisis worsens or the state faces financial collapse, powerful figures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could seek to shift blame onto the president, they said.
Iran entered the war already under heavy economic strain from years of sanctions, high inflation and currency instability.