In a recent political analysis, former cabinet minister Jonathan Moyo examined the electoral frameworks of the 56 Commonwealth member states, proposing a strong correlation between indirect elections for the head of the executive and a reduction in severe political disputes.
According to Moyo’s review, a clear majority of Commonwealth nations utilise indirect electoral systems. He outlines the current governance structures as follows:
Indirect Elections: 34 states (61%) employ indirect systems. These are predominantly parliamentary models where the prime minister or executive president is selected by parliament based on majority support or party list results.
Direct Elections: 20 states (36%) hold direct popular elections for their executive head, a method typical of presidential or semi-presidential republics.
Absolute Monarchies: 2 states (3%) operate without elections, relying on hereditary or appointed executive heads.
The African Context and Dispute Frequency
Moyo’s report highlights a distinct regional breakdown within the African continent regarding these systems. Of the 34 Commonwealth nations that utilise indirect elections, only four are African: Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius, and South Africa. In contrast, the vast majority of the 20 nations that elect their executive heads directly—16 in total—are located in Africa, including countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda.
The core of Moyo’s analysis focuses on the frequency and severity of post-election instability. He asserts that while approximately 24% of the Commonwealth nations with indirect elections experience electoral disputes, these conflicts are generally infrequent and less severe. Conversely, he notes that 85% of the nations utilising direct elections face disputes that tend to be both severe and frequent.
Notably, Moyo observes that all 16 African Commonwealth states holding direct elections have experienced severe and violent electoral conflicts. He attributes this chronic instability to several compounding factors:
Weak institutional frameworks.
High societal polarisation amplified by ethnic or regional tensions.
The “permanent election modes” inherent in high-stakes direct presidential races.
External political interference and alleged regime-change agendas instigated by Western powers.
Global Comparisons and Conclusions
To contextualise his findings, the former minister cites two major global powers that utilise indirect systems. He points to India, a Commonwealth member and the world’s largest democracy with a population of 1.48 billion, which indirectly elects its executive. He also draws a parallel to the United States, highlighting that its president is elected indirectly via the 538-member Electoral College.
Ultimately, Moyo concludes that the data from the Commonwealth and the United States presents compelling evidence in favour of indirect elections. He argues that stepping away from direct presidential votes “detoxifies politics,” mitigates the destabilising effects of perpetual campaigning, and fosters organic national unity while safeguarding national sovereignty. – Zimbo LIVE Harare