WHO SHOULD BE ZAMBIA’s NEXT PRESIDENT AND WHY?
By Sean Tembo – PeP President
Part 3 of 3 (Sub-part 2 of 10)
Sean Tembo. Yes, that’s correct. Sean Tembo should be the next President of the Republic of Zambia and here are 10 reasons why.
1. Among the several attributes that we need in the next President, competence ranks paramount. Competence to turnaround our ailing economy and put it on a path of sustainability and growth. Competence to navigate our debt default and ensure that our huge debt burden is managed and eventually liquidated. Competence to identify and seal off all revenue leakages so as to ensure that all State income streams lead to the treasury so as to beef up our domestic resource mobilization and remove reliance on borrowing and donor funds as a means of funding national expenditure. Competence to convert Zambia’s economic potential into actual wealth for the benefit of all citizens.
(i) A competent person is what Zambia needs as the next President if we are going to turn the page on our financial and economic quagmire. And that is exactly what Sean Tembo brings to the table. But people will ask to say what is the source of Sean Tembo’s competence such that this nation should trust him to run its affairs? Well, the source of Sean Tembo’s competence is twofold; qualifications and experience. In terms of qualifications, Sean Tembo holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) Degree from the University of Derby in the United Kingdom, a Bachelor of Accountancy Degree from the Copperbelt University, he is a Fellow of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (FCCA) of the United Kingdom, a Statutory Auditor duly registered by the Zambia Institute of Chartered Accountants (ZiCA), an Insolvency Practitioner duly accredited by the Patents and Companies Registration Agency (PACRA) in addition to about 8 other qualifications that might be too monotonous to list here.
(ii) Sean Tembo’s experience emanates from advising the Governments of South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho and Kenya over a period of 16 years while running his audit and consultancy firm. Among the notable assignments that he undertook in South Africa was to develop a model for estimating the economic output of the informal sector, identify its drivers, advantages, disadvantages and how the informal sector can be integrated into the formal sector of the economy. This was a $2 million and 3 year assignment which was successfully completed on time. Among the notable assignments that he undertook in Botswana was a national water tariff study which sought to map out the economic standing of each city, district and village based on household income and then proceed to develop a model for tailored water tariffs based on the affordability of each city, district and village. This was a $1.5 million and 18 months assignment that was successfully completed on time.
(iii) Over a period of 16 years, Sean Tembo undertook and successfully completed hundreds of assignments similar to the two illustrated above in South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho and Kenya. This gave him first hand knowledge and experience on macro and micro economic challenges facing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, different approaches that have been adopted by different Governments to try and fight the scourge of poverty and the relative successes and failures of each of these interventions. This means that Sean Tembo knows and understands the type of interventions that would work for Zambia to convert our economic potential into actual wealth so as to lift our citizens from the scourge of poverty and squalor. Sean Tembo knows exactly what economic interventions should be prioritized if the Zambian people make him President in August 2021.
(iv) It is on the basis of the extensive qualifications and experience in formulating and implementing government policy in various jurisdictions in Sub-Saharan Africa that Sean Tembo has been able to develop and present alternative economic solutions to Zambia’s economic challenges in the form of the annual PeP Alternative National Budgets since his formation of the Patriots for Economic Progress (PeP) in 2016. The full import of this initiative is that Sean Tembo has been so confident about his proposed economic solutions for Zambia that he has been willing to document them into a formal document called an Alternative National Budget which is then widely circulated to the general public for their scrutiny and possible criticism. The proposed economic solutions for Zambia which Sean Tembo has put forward in the PeP Alternative National Budgets for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and most recently 2021, have been reviewed and scrutinized by multitudes of economic scholars, think tanks and multilateral economic agencies, and although each of these key stakeholders have different feedback, they all agree on one thing; that Sean Tembo possesses the competence that Zambia so desperately needs to turnaround her economic fortunes. The kind of competence that is absent from any other political leader on Zambia’s political landscape today. And that it would be a rare privilege for Zambia to be served by such a competent individual in the role of Republican President.
(v) In terms of the proposed solutions to Zambia’s economic problems today, the narrative among almost all the other opposition leaders including HH and Mutati is that we need to go on an IMF package. Sean Tembo disagrees strongly regarding an IMF package as a solution to Zambia’s economic woos today. The funny thing about proponents of an IMF package is that they never explain how it would actually assist to get Zambia out of the current debt distress. They just say “we need an IMF package” and end there, which is very simplistic. Managing a national economy is never a simple matter. Sean Tembo knows that very well. That is the reason why when Sean Tembo advocates for a particular economic solution, he always goes into lengthy detail of how such a proposed solution will actually work. Such an approach gives a fair chance to critics and the general public at large, to scrutinize the proposed economic solutions.
(vi) Sean Tembo believes that Zambia’s current economic problems are essentially threefold; firstly the debt distress that has been brought about by over-borrowing which has resulted in the current debt default and potential additional defaults in the coming months. Secondly, the loss in the productive capacity of the economy over the past 9 years that has been brought about by various factors including unavailable and unaffordable key production inputs such as electricity and fuel, poor and unstable policy environment that has seen Government announce radical economic policies one minute and reverse them the next minute etc. Our third major economic challenge today is rampant high-level corruption that is characterized by pilferage of public revenues at source before they even make it to the treasury. Of course, the first and the third economic challenges are interrelated. Due to rampant pilferage of public finances at source, the nation is unable to generate adequate domestic resources and we end up borrowing in order to finance public expenditure thereby creating a vicious cycle.
(vii) Given the above three key economic problems that Zambia faces today, Sean Tembo does not believe that an IMF package is the solution. For the uninitiated, an IMF package is essentially a Eurobond with excess conditionalities. So then, if our biggest economic challenge today is over-borrowing, then how can the solution be additional borrowing? It’s like you see a house on fire and someone (HH and Mutati) proposes that in order to put out the fire, let us pour petrol!!! Clearly, petrol cannot put out a house that is on fire in the same manner and fashion that additional borrowing cannot be a solution for an economy that is in debt distress and already failing to pay its existing debts having officially defaulted. The argument that an IMF loan would come at concessional rates (low interest rates) as advanced by HH, does not hold water. The reason is that the stringent conditionalities which the IMF would impose on Zambia would essentially deprive us of our sovereignty. We would relinquish our sovereignty and right to self-determination to the International Monitory Fund in return for a few dollars. Sean Tembo’s argument is that no amount of dollars is enough for this nation to relinquish its sovereignty and right to self-determination. We are a nation of proud citizens, whether in poverty or in prosperity. We do not need to IMF Executive in a shinny suit and pointed shoes sitting in Washington DC to be the one determining whether medicines should be bought for Chansa clinic or not.
(viii) If the Zambian people are gracious enough to elect Sean Tembo as President of this Republic in August 2021, his first order of business in addressing the economy will be to ensure that all public revenue leakages are sealed. Sean Tembo believes that this country is losing more than half of our public revenues to pilferage at source and he is best suited to address this national problem because of his unique set of skills, being a Forensic Auditor among other things. The statistics are actually there to support the fact that this country loses huge chunks of tax and non-tax revenue to pilferage that is facilitated by high level corruption. For example, at 17% Zambia’s tax revenue to GDP ratio is the lowest in the region, despite the fact that our tax rates are the highest in the region. South Africa has an average tax-revenue to GDP ratio of about 26%, Botswana 25%, Namibia 27%, Lesotho 24%, Zimbabwe 23% etc. And when you look at the official 2021 National Budget, Zambia’s projected tax-revenue to GDP ratio for 2021 is at an all time low of 13.9%. The question which the Zambian people should be asking is; why is our tax-revenue to GDP ratio so low despite our tax rates for various tax types being some of the highest in the region? The answer is that our tax revenue is stolen at source through high level corruption, especially for the mining sector.
(ix) For example, am sure the Zambian people do vividly recall that about 3 years ago, the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) embarked on a noble initiative to undertake a forensic audit of all mining companies because they suspected them of evading tax. In their first audit, they raised an additional assessment against a named mining company based in Solwezi of K8 billion in unpaid back taxes. Suddenly there was a flurry of Government interference from high level officials and before long, the K8 billion tax bill which ZRA had raised against this mining company was scraped. Additionally, the ZRA initiative to undertake forensic audits of all mining companies was cancelled. Soon thereafter, several cabinet ministers especially those with Copperbelt constituencies were awash with unexplained cash and went on a spending spree that amazed most citizens. Some would donate groceries worth more than K1.5 million every weekend to their constituents. Others bought brand new big buses worth not less than K4 million for their constituencies. There is clearly a connection here. The Ngonis say “tsiku yamene nkalamba asoba pa munzi, chimbwi akanya invwi nishi niyeve walya nkalamba”, Loosely translated, this means “the day an old lady disappears from a village and a hyena’s faecal matter is found to have traces of white hair, then it can be concluded that the hyena is the one that ate the old lady”.
(x) If you multiply the K8 billion that ZRA was prevented from collecting in unpaid taxes from one mining company, by 15 which is the approximate number of large mining companies in Zambia, that gives you approximately K120 billion. This amount is more than our national budget for 2021. This means that in the absence of high level corruption and theft of tax and non-tax revenue, we could fund our entire budget with tax revenue from the mining sector only!!! Without changing any tax rates and enacting any new laws. Just by eliminating the aspect of high level corruption and ensuring that public revenues end up in the treasury and not in the pockets of Ministers and other senior Government officials. That is how much potential this country has. We have so much potential to mobilize domestic revenues that we do not need any IMF package or indeed any Eurobond or Chinese borrowing. That is exactly what Sean Tembo will bring on the table once elected President. He will ensure that there is zero pilferage of public revenues and his background as a forensic audit means that he knows exactly what measures to put in place to plug off these revenue leakages. With an abundance of domestic resources, we will not worry about debt default. Sean Tembo will simply pay off our debts but he will not end there, he will go further to build our national reserves to at least 6 years of import cover by the end of his two terms as President, so that in case the Zambian people elect an incompetent President to take over from Sean Tembo, there will at least be an economic buffer to cushion the possible mismanagement that might follow.
To be continued…
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SET 24.11.2020
In the next sub-part 2 of 10, we will look at the second reason why Sean Tembo should be the next President of Zambia.