Silent military takeover in Iran?—There is a government, but the IRGC is making all the decisions
Where it all started—an invisible change
For the past few days, one thing has been going around—
A “coup” has happened in Iran.
Some say—the government is no more, everything has gone into the hands of the military.
But the reality is not so simple.
Tanks have not been rolled out on the streets, the president has not been removed, and the constitution has not been abrogated.
Still—if you look a little deeper, you will understand that the real center of power has quietly shifted.
This is not a sudden storm,
This is a gradual change—the sound of which is not heard outside.
If you understand the structure of Iran, the picture becomes clear
We often make mistakes—we think of Iran as like India or America.
But Iran’s system is different.
There are three levels here—
The Supreme Leader
This position is the real center of power. The military, the judiciary, the media—everything comes together here.
Elected government
There is a president, a cabinet, but their power is limited. They basically run the administration, but they do not have the final say in the decisions.
IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard)
An invisible force—which is the pillar within the entire system.
IRGC—Not an army, but another state within the state
It would be wrong to think of the IRGC as just the army.
They—
- Fight
- Do intelligence work
- Control a large part of the economy
Oil, construction, telecom—they are present everywhere.
In other words—
The power that not only holds the guns,
but also controls the money,
also controls the information—
that power actually becomes another state within the state.
Why has this change become clear now
This power has been there for a long time.
But there was a balance—through the Supreme Leader.
When that center becomes weak or there is a sudden change—
then a vacuum is created.
New leadership comes, but it takes time to build that acceptance.
Not everyone accepts it in one day.
At this time, the most organized force comes to the fore.
And in Iran, that force is—the IRGC.
During war—whose word has the last word
When a country is in the middle of war, the rules change.
At that time—
- Quick decisions are needed
- Security becomes the biggest issue
Then naturally—
Politicians step back,
and the military structure comes to the fore.
The same is happening in Iran.
Today—
- What strategy to take
- Where to strike
- How to maintain the internal situation
The IRGC is deciding all these things.
The president is there, but not at the center of the decision-making.
Silent takeover—Change of power without any announcement
The most important thing here is—
This is not a sudden takeover.
Gradually—
- Important ministries have come under influence
- Economic sectors have come under control
- Decision-making space has narrowed
No one announced—“We took power”
But in reality, power has shifted.
Its impact—hardship inside, conflict outside
What could be the result of this change?
First, Iran will become more military-centric.
Security, not politics, will be the center.
Second, the path to negotiations will become difficult.
Because military mentality and diplomatic mentality are not the same thing.
Third, regional conflict may increase.
Because the IRGC supports various groups—and that support may be more active.
Fourth, control within the country will increase.
Surveillance, strict laws, social pressure—all may increase.
The most profound question—what is a state?
This whole incident raises a big question—
Is the state just the government that we vote for?
Or is it the power that has real control?
In the case of Iran, the answer is not easy.
Because here—
The government is visible,
but control is invisible.
Finally—it is not something sudden, but a reality that has been accumulating for many years.
What is seen in Iran today was not created in a day.
For many years—
- A level of power has been created
- Military power has expanded
- Economic influence has increased
Today, the results of all of that are visible together.
It is easy to call it a “coup”,
but in fact it is a slow, profound transformation.
⸻
Sometimes history does not change with a loud voice—
It changes direction quietly,
and we realize later—
In fact, much had already changed.