THE MAGIC NUMBER REQUIRED TO WIN THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
In order for any candidate to WIN the Presidential Elections scheduled for Thursday, August 13th 2026, a candidate will be required to obtain a minimum of *3, 048, 919* ( *Three Million, Forty-Eight Thousand, Nine* *Hundred And Eighteen* ) Valid Votes Cast.
This is the number requirement in order to meet the minimum threshold of Fifty Percent plus one *(50%+1)* in accordance to our current Constitution and in relation to the current Provisional Voters Register.
The number as given above is not a carelessly guessed number. It is a meticulously arrived at projection, given a number of explainable and quantifiable parameters as well as conservative assumptions.
Let me now explain the steps taken and the assumptions considered in order to arrive at this number. If one so wishes, the same steps may be taken by anyone who may want to do these calculations by oneself.
*Steps And Considerations Taken*
Step Number One (1) is to take the total number of registered voters on the newly announced provisional register of voters. According to the Electoral Commission of Zambia ( ECZ), this figure stands at *8,861,918* ( *Eight Million, Eight Hundred and Sixty-One Thousand, Nine Hundred and Eighteen* )
The second step (step 2) is to work out the most likely voter turn out in 2026. In this case, there are several possibilities one can use. One would be to take the average voter turnout for the last three general elections of 2011, 2016 and 2021. This average is *60.23%* .
The other would be to use the closest voting pattern and percentage of the previous elections of 2021. The voter turnout of 2021 was 70.61%. This higher voter turnout was primarily driven by a very high turnout in three out of the 10 provinces. Southern, North-Western and Western Provinces had an average voter turnout of *79%* while the remaining Seven Provinces had a voter turn out of *67%* .This is a *12%* difference in favour of three provinces.
This means that the overall national voter turnout was high because these three provinces dragged the percentage upwards. If one evaluates the recent addition to the voters roll of 2026 as compared to 2021, the same pattern emerges. The voter registration turn-out for the same three provinces is *60.6%* while the remaining seven provinces is *46%* .
The difference this time is a higher *15%* in favour of the three. The “great and incredible enthusiasm” of three will pull the national total upwards and to the benefit of the candidate strongest there. For this similarity in pattern, it makes logical sense to use *70.61*% as voter turn-out of 2021 in regard to 2026. In this regard the projected Voter turn-out for 2026 comes to *6,257,400* votes cast.
*Rejected Votes Percentage*
Step three (3) is in relation to the percentage of rejected votes likely to be, as a percentage of total votes cast. The average voter rejected votes for the last three presidential and general elections was 2.14% percent. This was as a result of 2011, ( 1.43%) for 2016 (2.45%) and 2021 ( *2.55 %*).
However, due to a number of reasons, to be explained at another time, the realistic number to be used will be the 2021 figure of rejected votes. Hence we can use this average, or we can standardize the argument and use the 2021figure of *2.55%* . In this regard the rejected votes will most likely be estimated at 159,564. Hence the Total valid votes cast will be calculated at *6,097,836*.
Step four (4) is the final tabulation. Given the voter registration number of 8,861,918 million, and taking into consideration of a voter turnout of 70.61% , with a rejected votes cast of 2.55%, the Valid Votes Cast would be 6,097,836 votes. Fifty Percent plus 1 (50% + 1) of this number is *3,048,918* .
However, in order to ensure less aggravation on number, the minimum percentage of the winning candidate should be 51% of all valid votes cast. The most minimum desirable target of a winning candidate should be at least 55% of the valid votes cast. In this case, the winning candidate would need *3,353,809* to be an undisputed victor.
*Comparative Analysis of 2016 and 2O21 Presidential* *Candidates* .
In 2016 President Lungu got a win of 50.53% with 1.86 million votes, while HH got 47.63% with 1.76 million. In 2021 President Hakainde got to win 57.50% with 2.85 million and ECL got 37.72% with 1.87million. The closest third placed candidate got 0.51% with 25,231.
All these above numbers must be compared to the 3.3 million required to get to a desirable 55% of the Vote. This is a tall order for both the candidate of the governing party as well as for the opposition. Serious thought and consideration and introspection must be considered, especially for the opposition..
*How To Ensure One Candidate Obtains The Winning Number* .
No amount of mysticism, or trickery or witchcraft will get you to this number. A great deal of thoughtful planning, strategy, hard work, financial and human resources will be required to get a candidate across this line. A great deal of realism, cooperation and integration among those in the opposition is required.
It is very doubtful, that any single candidate, by themselves or an individual party will meet this threshold. Burying heads in the sand or getting angry at the author will not help cross the threshold. It is very possible to get to this threshold, but maturity, self-denial, collective effort and forgoing unrealistic personal ambition will be critical. The choice lies in the hands of a realistic collective leadership.
Muhabi Lungu
Secretary General
The Zambia We Want, a member of
We’re One Zambia Alliance (WOZA)
Mahabi, this is SS120 Statistics course and UNZA then. Very few people will comprehend this. Harry, Given, Emmanuel etc, this is strange to there thought process.
Rubbish, spending all that time on assumption after assumption.You can only wish a voter turn out, you cannot hard wire it. Supposing voter turn out is 3.5, 4 or 5 million, where does your calculation go? Out through the window. Try to do more useful things.
My thoughts borne out of common sense is that, notwithstanding the numbers of registered voters or whatever theory, in the unlikely event that there is aparthy, but all the votes cast are counted exceed 50% plus one, then the threshold is met. Meaning, if only 2 million people voted and out of that 2 million, 1.8 million voted for UPND, that is it, 50% + 1. You cannot force people to go and vote or repeat the process even by second round and hope to get a different outcome.