Trump Delays China Trip Amid Push for Hormuz Help
Prediction market odds have fallen sharply on President Trump visiting China by the end of March. Traders now see only a 25 percent chance of the trip happening this month, down after Trump linked any visit to Beijing helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Iran has blocked it during the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, driving prices up significantly since early this year.
Trump has called on China, a major importer of that oil, to join a coalition effort to secure the strait. He warned the trip could be postponed without cooperation, using the prospect as leverage in tense US-China relations.
The Polymarket contract tied to a March visit has seen heavy trading volume in the millions, reflecting bets on whether diplomacy or pressure will prevail. Longer-term odds for an April visit remain higher, but the immediate outlook has cooled fast.