UPND SWOT Analysis 2026
By Nkonkomalimba Kapumpe
Political Threats
In 2022 people were crying that there is no opposition. 2023 the cry has changed to “there is no organized Opposition Party”. By the end of 2024 the cry will be a United Opposition. This is a natural course of five year political cycle if people are not happy. The issue is people not being happy.
1. The greatest threat to UPND is its members who are disappointed and abandoned. Those that campaigned tirelessly and were willing to die. They suffered and continue to suffer to date; yet everyday they are seeing those that did not suffer enjoy their fruits. Those will do you bad, just wait. The only way to bring such people back now is money, offering them employment will not work. Where are you going to get the money? This is how corruption starts to thrives.
2. The people that revolted against PF but don’t see any major difference from UPND, and these are many. By 2022 it was impossible to criticize the President and UPND to the masses. People and not politicians would ridicule us. 2023 people are crying for an organized opposition and those who criticize the government are now heros. Today if you support UPND you risk being accused of eating or not mentally okay.
3. The Socialist party are organized and seem to be well financed. The reason why they are a threat is people will come and look for anything they can use to throw at UPND. In a fight you look for any big stone you can find. The more people get disgruntled the more socialist because strong. Their weaknesses is that their voice is not yet that exciting.
4. ECL, any candidate he will endorse will have a major impact, especially if they are already carrying a popularity of their own. Former Presidents in Zambia are extremely important and influential during an election from time in memorial. I have avoided to mention PF.. whether the come back to power or not will not depend on them, it’s our people will react to UPND.
5. Civil servants, they get very little salaries and the cost of living is hurting them like no man’s business. You take home 3 500 and 2 bags of mealie meal for the family is costing you over 10% of your take home!
6. EFF is small and growing with a lot of potential. They are setting the political agenda for the nation because the audience are mostly young people. Young people control the national agenda .If EFF talks about Mining or corruption the entire nation gets on the topic without even acknowledging them. With resources EFF could become the biggest threat to turn young voters against the UPND. This is key.
7. The poor, the Marketeers, Street Vendors, Drivers, Gardeners, Maids and waitresses etc their cost of living is unbearable. Transport, food and electricity are too expensive in the minimum wage of 1500.00. They are already de-campaigning you, because they can access different people and communities. This is where farmers come in as well, the removal FISP will be a big problem.
8. Youth employment, these are tired of seeing their friends dancing and driving around when they can’t afford a proper shoe. The anger and disappointment will descend on the UPND by 2026. To them if they are not benefiting they won’t support. They just want a normal life.
9. Foreign relations, there will be a lot of money coming from China and Russia. I also see a lot of countries like Zimbabwe, Kenyan, and South Africa being extremely interested. This will be high dependent on how the opposition will be organised.
10. The last and least regionalism. They think they have sorted this but can’t graps what’s going on. With no plans or actions they “sorted” it out by just declaring.
In conclusion the UPND seem not to care what people think, they are neither offering explanations for what they are doing nor showing concern to the plight of the people. Basically the seem to have forgotten who holds them in office.They are so confident in with the stomachs that everything is okay to them and anyone crying is just an enemy. Let’s see how many enemies they will have
