What Brenda Nyirenda is Claiming and What the Evidence Shows

🇿🇲 CONTEXT | What Brenda Nyirenda is Claiming and What the Evidence Shows

Lundazi Patriotic Front Member of Parliament Brenda Nyirenda says Zambians are prepared to vote for any political party, regardless of its history or strength, as long as it is backed byagainst the United Party for National Development.

Speaking in an interview on Tuesday, Nyirenda argued that recent by-election outcomes prove that voters are no longer loyal to party labels but are instead unified by a single objective. “People are resolved,” she said. “They are just waiting to be told, ‘this way,’ and even if it takes a week to inform them the Patriotic Front and positioned to say this is the road that will be taken, UPND is gone.”

Nyirenda pointed to the Petauke and Chawama by-elections as her primary evidence. In Petauke, the PF supported the National Congress Party, which went on to win despite limited national presence. In Chawama, the Forum for Democracy and Development secured victory in a contest where it had previously failed to gain traction. “FDD had never won an election,” Nyirenda said. “They were coming from the tail but today, the FDD has won an election.”

From these outcomes, she concluded that voter behaviour has shifted from party preference to opposition coordination. “Just because the PF backed FDD, it won,” she said, adding that even symbols or party familiarity no longer mattered. “NCP had the most difficult symbol ever, a chair, but the people of Petauke were able to vote on a chair.”

Nyirenda further linked this resolve to public anger following the death of former president Edgar Lungu, arguing that dissatisfaction with how his family was treated had hardened attitudes against the ruling party. According to her, the electorate is now prepared to follow any directive that leads away from UPND governance.

She also described the Chawama result as a warning to the ruling party. “They should know that is a signal that people are not happy with them,” she said, predicting that the UPND would perform worse in a general election where, in her words, there would be no external mobilisation or inducements.

The ruling party has offered a more restrained reading of the loss. UPND Deputy Chairperson for Elections Likando Mufalali said the party would introspect, acknowledging that some areas may have been underrated.

The factual record supports part of Nyirenda’s argument. PF backed candidates using alternative party platforms have won recent by-elections. Voters have demonstrated a willingness to separate local contests from
loyalty. That much is observable.

What is not established is whether this behaviour translates directly to a general election. By-elections operate under different conditions. Turnout is lower. Campaigns are narrower. Voters often vote tactically to register dissatisfaction rather than to choose a governing party.

Nyirenda’s broader claim that the UPND is on an unavoidable path to defeat rests on assumption rather than evidence. It presumes sustained opposition unity, uniform voter motivation, and the absence of incumbency advantages. None of these conditions are guaranteed.

Her most grounded point lies elsewhere. Opposition fragmentation benefits the ruling party. Coordination, even under smaller party banners, has proven effective in limited contests. Whether that coordination can be scaled nationally remains unanswered.

What Chawama and Petauke confirm is discontent. They do not confirm outcome. Anger can influence votes. Power changes hands only when organisation matches sentiment.

© The People’s Brief | Francine Lilu