WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING INSIDE THE TONSE ALLIANCE AND PF

⬆️ EXPLAINER | WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING INSIDE THE TONSE ALLIANCE AND PF

Zambian opposition politics has entered a confusing phase. Two weeks ago, it looked like the Patriotic Front (PF) and its partners in the Tonse Alliance were moving toward unity ahead of the 2026 elections. Today, they are locked in a public power struggle that has split the alliance in two. Here is what is happening, why it matters, and where it may lead.

The Tonse Alliance was originally created as a coalition of opposition parties loyal to the late former president Edgar Chagwa Lungu. It was meant to bring together the PF and smaller parties like People’s Party for Prosperity (PeP), ZMP, and others under one umbrella. When Lungu died in June, the alliance lost its only figure who commanded universal authority among its members. What followed was a vacuum — and now, open war.

At the centre of the storm are two rival factions. One is led by Raphael Nakacinda, Given Lubinda, and Danny Pule. The other is led by Sean Tembo and Chris Zumani Zimba. Both claim to be the legitimate leadership of the Tonse Alliance, both claim to have Lungu’s blessing, and both insist that the other side is acting illegally.

The Nakacinda camp controls the PF Secretariat and has the backing of most senior PF structures. It argues that the Tonse Alliance cannot exist outside PF headquarters because the PF was the dominant partner and official face of the alliance. They insist that Lubinda remains the rightful acting president of the PF and that Nakacinda is the legally recognised Secretary General of both PF and the alliance.

The Tembo camp rejects this claim. It says the alliance is broader than the PF and must not be run like a party wing. Tembo and Zumani Zimba argue that the PF’s internal divisions have paralysed the alliance and that their group is trying to restore credibility through elections. On Tuesday, they held a meeting in Lusaka and announced that the Tonse Alliance will hold a General Congress on November 29 to elect its own chairperson and presidential candidate for 2026.

Nakacinda and Lubinda immediately responded, calling Tembo’s meeting fake, unconstitutional, and a ploy to confuse the public. They held a parallel press briefing at the PF Secretariat, where they declared that the “real Tonse Alliance” remains under PF leadership. The PF camp accused Tembo of hijacking the alliance and using Lungu’s name to legitimise his ambitions.

To make matters worse, Tembo has banned ZNBC, Kalemba, and News Diggers from covering his alliance’s events, accusing the media houses of misreporting Lungu’s death. The decision has drawn criticism from media groups who say it violates freedom of the press.

The standoff has now left the Tonse Alliance with two headquarters, two spokespersons, two constitutions in practice, and no clear leadership. A committee of bishops has been asked to mediate, but both sides continue to hold separate meetings and issue conflicting statements.

Inside the PF itself, things are no better. The party is split between those loyal to Lubinda and Nakacinda, those pushing for Kelvin Bwalya Fube and Brian Mundubile, and those still rallying behind Lungu’s family and close associates, such as Makebi Zulu and Tasila Lungu. While some members say Lubinda should take over formally as PF president, others argue he cannot because of “regional imbalances.” That dispute has opened a tribal debate within the party that has unsettled its base and tarnished its image.

In short, the opposition alliance that once aimed to challenge the ruling UPND in 2026 is now consumed by infighting. The PF is fragmented, and the Tonse Alliance is operating under two parallel authorities. Political analysts say the ruling party could benefit from this chaos, as it divides the opposition vote and drains their energy months before campaigns even begin.

The key takeaway is this: the Tonse Alliance was supposed to unify the opposition after Lungu’s death. Instead, it has become a battleground for control of his legacy. The PF’s internal wars have spilled into the alliance, and what was meant to be a platform for strategy has turned into a stage for ego.

Until the bishops’ mediation succeeds or one side concedes, Zambia’s opposition remains at war with itself. For voters watching from the sidelines, it is becoming harder to tell who speaks for whom. The only certainty is that unity has become the rarest commodity in Zambian politics today.

© The People’s Brief | Explainer