Who benefits from Zambia’s copper mining under the UPND Government?
A measured response to Antonio Mwanza
A recent post on mining by my dear friend Antonio Mourinho Mwanza is intriguing, given his past role in the Patriotic Front (PF), a party whose policies contributed significantly to Zambia’s economic challenges, including setbacks in the mining sector.
In light of his remarks, I wish to respond by sharing my own observations and experiences under the UPND government. These demonstrate how current policies are reshaping the mining sector and stabilizing the broader economy in ways that directly benefit the nation
Zambia’s mining policy under the United Party for National Development (UPND) is delivering rational, necessary, and broad-based benefits. Antonio’s headline ‘copper export value of US$7 billion’ is undisputed. In 2024, Zambia’s copper exports surged, with total earnings reaching approximately US$7.6 billion, driven by increased production. Production rose 12% to about 820,670 metric tonnes, supported by recoveries at major mines.
What requires clarification however is how value is created, distributed, and multiplied in a capital-intensive extractive economy. It should be appreciated that Policy consistence and credibility, not confiscation, anchors long-term national benefit.
What Antonio missed: New Local Content Regulations
The UPND government decided to walk the talk and not mere politicking of the PF. In October 2025, Zambia introduced the Geological and Minerals Development (Local Content) (Preference for Goods and Services in the Mining Sector) Regulations under Statutory Instrument No. 68 of 2025, effective from 1 January 2026. These regulations mandate mining companies to prioritize procurement from Zambian-owned or empowered companies (minimum 25% Zambian shareholding) to increase local participation in the mining value chain.
For mining suppliers, the new Local Content Regulations set a progressive reservation band: mining and mining-related companies must allocate at least 20 percent of their annual procurement budgets for core mining goods and services to qualifying Zambian-owned or citizen-empowered firms from 2026, rising to 25 percent after one year, 35 percent within two years, and a minimum of 40 percent within five years.
Mining revenue is not a “cash pot”
Copper revenues are the product of risk capital, not windfall gains. Mining requires extremely high up-front capital expenditure, exposure to volatile global prices set, and significant geological, operational, and political risk. It is, therefore, macro economically normal and globally observed that gross export value does not equal government take. This is true everywhere-Botswana, Chile, DR Congo, Peru, Australia, Canada, USA, and Zambia is not an exception.
Why the UPND policy shift is working
Under the UPND, Zambia corrected fiscal hostility by restoring stability. Previous instability and mining policy inconsistencies caused capital flight, mine closures, output collapse, foreign exchange shortages and kwacha depreciation. The UPND reversed this by restoring policy credibility, making mining taxation predictable, respecting contracts, and resolving legacy disputes. As a result, investment returned, production rose, employment stabilized, foreign exchange inflows strengthened, and debt sustainability improved.
Beyond the “15–25 percent government take” argument
Focusing only on direct fiscal take ignores economy-wide multipliers. Zambia benefits through foreign exchange inflows, which stabilize the kwacha, import capacity, and external debt servicing. Mining expansion directly raises real GDP, per-capita income, and national output capacity. The sector supports tens of thousands of direct jobs and hundreds of thousands of indirect jobs, while facilitating skills transfer and local procurement. Mining demand also underwrites ZESCO’s baseload stability, grid expansion economics, and long-term power investment. Without mining, Zambia’s power sector would collapse financially.
ZCCM-IH as a strategic lever
The claim that Zambia does not benefit mining revenues ignores the strengthening role of ZCCM Investments Holdings. ZCCM-IH now holds equity in major mines, earns dividends, retains upside without operational risk, and is positioned for future capital recycling. This represents smarter sovereign participation, not ideological ownership. Forcing majority ownership would collapse investment, reduce production, shrink the tax base, and kill future discoveries. History has already proven this outcome.
On “stop exporting raw copper”
Value addition is desirable, but sequencing matters. Industrialization cannot occur without reliable power, scale, competitive logistics, skilled labour, and regional market access. The UPND’s approach is correctly sequenced: grow production first, stabilize foreign exchange and power supply, attract anchor manufacturers, build regional value chains, and then deepen beneficiation. This avoids costly white-elephant industrial policies. Today Zambia is a big exporter of fertilisers, tiles and sanitary ware, glucose etc earning the country Foreign Exchange receipts. These are the results of policy credibility and consistency.
Next phase of policy
The government is not finished on mining and industrialization. The next phase is already underway. Higher production targets of 1.5 million tonnes will generate higher absolute revenue, double foreign exchange inflows, and strengthen macroeconomic buffers. Stronger transfer pricing enforcement will ensure compliance through digital export monitoring, arm’s-length pricing audits, and royalty verification. Mining revenues will be used more strategically to support power generation, rail and logistics, skills development, and industrial parks linked to mining clusters. Long-term savings will increasingly support reserves accumulation, debt reduction, and macroeconomic stability. This is sustainable resource economics, not populism.
Final macro truth
The real question is not who received the largest share of US$7 billion, but whether Zambia would have earned any of it without credible policy. Under the UPND Government, investment has returned, production is rising, foreign exchange is stabilizing, jobs are coming back, and the economy is re-anchoring. That is how resource wealth is transformed into national development.
Copper alone does not develop a country. Sound macroeconomic policy does!
Davies Mike Sitali
PhD Scholar, Msc, MBA, BEcon, PgD
Former UNZASU Secretary General
2026 Aspiring UPND Member of Parliament – Itezhi Tezhi